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ECB and earnings season in focus

Global markets are gearing up for a pivotal week as the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision on Thursday takes centre stage, with investors watching for signals on the pace rate cuts amid deteriorating macroeconomic data. Meanwhile, more third-quarter earnings are due with major US banks reporting early in the week, followed by the first tech earnings. Asian stocks traded higher on Monday, buoyed by China's latest stimulus announcement, while US markets hit new highs at the end of last week.

Date
Author
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Reading time
5 minutes

Stock chart
© Shutterstock

This week, the ECB’s interest rate decision on Thursday will be the focal point for global markets, with investors eagerly waiting to see how the central bank is interpreting deteriorating macroeconomic data and what it means for its future monetary policy. Inflation data will also be in the spotlight, with the UK releasing its Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and Canada’s CPI figures due on Tuesday. In addition, China's GDP and industrial production figures, released on Friday, will provide critical insights into the health of the world's second-largest economy. Labour market data from the UK on Tuesday and US retail sales on Thursday will further shape market sentiment.

On the corporate side, the third-quarter earnings season kicks into full gear this week with figures from several of Wall Street’s most prominent financial institutions early in the week, such as Bank of America, Charles Swab, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs on Tuesday as well as Morgan Stanley on Wednesday. Tech earnings get going as well with ASML on Wednesday as well as and Netflix and TSMC on Thursday.

Asian markets trade higher on next Chinese stimulus announcement

China's CSI 300 index increased by 2% on Monday, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was up about 0.3%, as investors evaluated Beijing's weekend stimulus pledges made over the weekend. The stimulus includes potential increased debt issuance, as highlighted by Finance Minister Lan Fo’an, who indicated significant room to boost the deficit. But investors were left guessing as to the exact effect on the stock market as key details were left out of the announcement over the weekend. Other stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region were trading higher as well on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.4%, while Korea’s Kospi gained 1.1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.5%.

US stock indices reach new highs

US stock markets resumed their record run on Friday, driven by a strong start to the earnings season. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1% to close at 42,863.86 points. The S&P 500 increased by 0.6% to 5,815.03 points. Conversely, the Nasdaq 100 saw minimal movement, edging up by 0.2% to 20,271.97 points, hindered by Tesla's underwhelming robotaxi presentation, which caused the company’s stock to plunge by nearly 9%. JPMorgan kicked off the third-quarter earnings season with strong results on Friday. Revenue and net income both beat market expectations with the bank’s stock closing 4.4% higher on Friday.

US Producer Price Index unchanged in September

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand remained flat in September, following a 0.2% increase in August and no change in July, according to data released on Friday. Year-on-year, the index rose by 1.8%. The PPI for final demand services increased by 0.2%, while final demand goods saw a 0.2% decline, driven by a significant 2.7% drop in energy prices. The core PPI, which excludes foods, energy, and trade services, edged up by 0.1% in September, marking a 3.2% rise over the past year. Producer prices are closely watched by markets as they tend to give clues about how consumer prices could develop in coming months as companies seek to pass on higher costs to consumer.

Also on Friday, the University of Michigan reported that the consumer sentiment index for October fell to 68.9 points, down from 70.1 in September, representing a 1.7% decrease. This figure was below economists' expectations of 70.9 points. While inflation expectations have eased, consumers are still concerned about high prices.

UK economy returns to growth in August

The UK's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.2% in August, according to figures released by the Office for National Statistics on Friday, following no growth in June and July. This recovery was driven by a rebound in construction and strong performances in accountancy, manufacturing, and retail sectors. However, the broader trend indicates slowing growth compared to earlier in the year. The government is preparing for its Budget at the end of October, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer warning of potential tax increases and painful decisions.

European stock indices closed mostly higher on Friday. Germany’s DAX rose by 0.9% to 19,373.83 points and France’s CAC 40 gained 0.5% to 7577.89 points. The Swiss Market Index also advanced, increasing by 0.6% to 12,154.19 points.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: Swiss Producer and Import Price Index (08:30).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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