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Fears of economic slowdown due to an overly hesitant Fed weigh on equity markets

Friday saw a real sell-off in equity markets. While investors had taken the Fed's continued wait-and-see approach in stride in the middle of last week, focusing on the foreseeable easing in September, a surprisingly poor ISM manufacturing index and a weaker-than-expected US employment report sparked recession fears and doubts about the Fed's timing. Pressure on Asian equity markets continued at the start of the week, with Tokyo in particular experiencing another sell-off.

Date
Author
Alessandro Fezzi, LGT
Reading time
5 minutes
Global stocks drop
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Asia-Pacific markets continued their sell-off from the end of last week at the start of this week. Japanese markets led the region's losses. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 and the Topix lost up to 7% in volatile trading as of 06:45 CET. Heavyweights such as Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Sumitomo and Marubeni were all down around 10%. This means that both the Nikkei and the Topix are approaching bear market territory, having fallen almost 20% from their all-time highs on 11 July. Monday's renewed plunge follows Friday's slump, when Japan's Nikkei 225 and Topix fell by more than 5% and 6% respectively. The broader Topix posted its worst day in eight years, while the Nikkei had its worst day since March 2020. The yen rose to its highest level against the dollar since January. South Korea's Kospi and Kosdaq fell more than 4%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index posted the smallest loss in Asia, down around 0.2%, while mainland China's CSI 300 was the only major index to post a small gain. At least there were positive economic signals from China today. The purchasing managers' index for the Chinese services sector rose to 52.1 points in July from 51.2 points in June.

Cocktail of recession fears and disappointing corporate data 

In New York, the slump continued at an accelerated pace into the weekend, driven by a surprisingly weak jobs report that deepened recession fears and increased the risk of dovish Federal Reserve policy. Disappointing quarterly reports from Amazon and Intel also contributed to the change in sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial closed 1.5% lower on Friday at 39,737.26. In Friday's trading, the Dow lost 989 points at its peak. For the week, the index lost 2.1%. The S&P 500 closed at 5346.56 on Friday, a loss of 1.8%. The Nasdaq technology exchange was hit even harder, with indices falling around 2.4% at the end of last week to their lowest level since mid-May. For the week, the Nasdaq 100 was down just over 3%. The world's largest online retailer, Amazon, disappointed with its outlook for the current quarter. The stock lost almost 9%. Shares in chipmaker Intel slumped by as much as 26%. The tech giant also disappointed with its quarterly results and outlook and will now have to cut costs drastically.

In the bond market, the yield on ten-year US Treasuries fell to 3.82%, having dipped below the 4% mark on Thursday. The US dollar weakened on the weak economic data and the euro is now back above 1.09 against the greenback. The price of gold climbed just below its recent record high on Friday. The precious metal gained more than 2% last week.

US labour market cools much more than expected

The previously very strong US labour market is showing signs of weakness. Only 114,000 new jobs were created in July, well below the consensus expectation of 175,000 non-farm payrolls. In addition, the unemployment rate reached 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021 (previous month 4.1%). At the same time, wage growth weakened. The labour market data followed the already surprisingly weak ISM survey figures. As a result, activity in the US industrial sector deteriorated sharply in July, pointing to an overall economic slowdown.

Weak economic data puts the Fed on the spot

As a result, investors are now wondering whether the Federal Reserve is being too hesitant and has waited too long to cut interest rates for the first time. In addition to the labour market, US inflation has also weakened recently. In June, inflation fell to 3% from 3.3% previously. A rate cut in September now seems certain given the gloomier economic outlook.

Corporate and macroeconomic calendars

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Infineon, Biontech, Berkshire Hathaway.

Economic data in focus: Services and Composite Purchasing Managers’ Indices from several countries throughout the day, including Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the euro area, UK, and United States; Turkish Consumer Price Index, Turkish Producer Price Index, Sentix investor confidence for the eurozone, ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index USA.

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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