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French political upheaval and US employment report in focus

Investors are continuing to monitor the political situation in France. After French Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government was toppled in a vote of no-confidence Wednesday, markets remained generally calm. European stocks climbed on Thursday, with France's CAC 40 reaching a three-week high. Today’s focus will be on the monthly US labour market statistics, which always have an impact on the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy bias. 

Date
Author
Alessandro Fezzi, LGT Research Content & Publications
Reading time
5 minutes

French Parliament
© Shutterstock

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier resigned on Thursday following a no-confidence vote by 331 lawmakers from the left-wing New Popular Front and the far-right National Rally on Wednesday. This marks the first ousting of a French government since 1962, triggered by disputes over the 2025 budget. President Emmanuel Macron is under pressure to appoint a new prime minister swiftly, as political instability is expected to persist, potentially impacting France's economic outlook. However, French markets remained stable despite political turmoil with the ten-year government bond yield steady at 2.9% on Thursday and the CAC 40 index in positive territory. However, this calm may be temporary if opposition calls for President Macron's resignation and early elections gain traction. The political uncertainty could lead to increased volatility in bond yields, the stock market, and the euro.

Wall Street retreats after reaching record highs

After the recent record rally, the US stock markets fell back slightly on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial closed at 44,765.71 points, down 0.55%, and the S&P 500 fell by almost 0.2% to 6,075.11 points, after the broad-market index had also reached new record highs earlier in the day. The Nasdaq indices fell by around 0.3%. The focus is now on the US labour market report due this afternoon. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims increased by 9000 to 224,000, the highest level since mid-October. Economists had expected 215,000 claims. Last week's figure was revised upwards from 213,000 to 215,000. These weekly claims are closely monitored as an indicator of the US labour market's health, which influences Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. The Fed will announce its last monetary policy decision this year on 18 December. Markets expect another 25 basis points cut.

On the bond market, the yield on ten-year US Treasuries is currently at 4.17% and the US dollar continued to lose ground against the euro - currently at 1.0580.

Asia-Pacific markets mixed amid political turmoil 

Equity markets in the Asia-Pacific region traded without a clear trend at the end of the week following record highs on Wall Street despite ongoing political instability. South Korea's Kospi fell 0.6% as lawmakers moved to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol after his martial law declaration. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.8%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 1.8%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 index gained 1.3%. Meanwhile, bitcoin surged past USD 100,000 and is now up more than 133% in 2024 and 42% since the US election.

OPEC+ delays production increase plans

The OPEC+ alliance has postponed plans to increase oil production until 2026 due to weak global demand, according to sources. The group will maintain its production cap at 39.725 million barrels per day through 2026, extending voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day into the first quarter of 2025. Despite these measures and regional conflicts, oil prices have remained subdued this year.

Swiss unemployment rises slightly in November - GDP forecast lowered for 2024

Unemployment figures in Switzerland for November increased slightly due to seasonal factors, according to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) on Thursday. The number of unemployed rose by 4.0% from October to 121,114, raising the unemployment rate to 2.6%. Despite this, the Swiss labour market remains robust, with seasonal adjustments keeping the rate steady. Additionally, the number of job seekers increased by 4%, while the availability of open positions decreased by 4.5%.

Meanwhile, the growth forecast for 2024 for the Swiss economy has been revised down by 0.1 percentage points by BAK Economics, predicting a GDP growth of 1.4%, up from 0.9% this year. Geopolitical risks and global economic underperformance are cited as reasons for caution.

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: German industrial production (07:00), Italian retail sales (09:00), euro-area gross domestic product (10:00), Canadian unemployment rate (14:30), US nonfarm payrolls (14:30), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (16:00).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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