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Global stocks continue fall after Fed's cautious rate outlook

Global equities declined late in the week as the Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious rate-cutting path for next year weighed on investor sentiment. The Dow Jones managed to end its ten-day losing streak on Thursday, but tech stocks tumbled. European markets saw significant declines on Thursday and in Asia, stocks traded lower to finish the week. Multiple central bank decisions were announced on Thursday, with the Bank of England and China's and Japan's central bank maintaining rates, while Sweden's Riksbank cut its policy rate. Treasuries fell across the curve while bitcoin retreated from a recent all-time high.

Date
Author
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Reading time
5 minutes

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New York equities showed some stability on Thursday following recent interest rate concerns after the Fed revealed a more cautious rate-cutting path for next year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up slightly to 42,342.24 points, ending a ten-day losing streak, its longest since the 1970s. However, the Nasdaq 100 dropped by 0.5% to 21,110.51 points, impacted by a 16% plunge in Micron's shares due to disappointing forecasts. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% to 5867.08 points.

US third-quarter GDP revised higher

The US economy grew at an annualised rate of 3.1% in the third quarter, up from the previously estimated 2.8%, according to data released by the Commerce Department on Thursday. This revision was driven by stronger consumer spending and export growth. The economy had expanded at a 3% pace in the second quarter. The Fed, which cut interest rates earlier this week, noted the economy's resilience despite continued inflation concerns. US initial jobless claims, also released Thursday, dropped by 22,000 to 220,000 for the week ending 14 December. Continuing claims also fell by 5000 to 1.874 million.

China maintains lending rates

China's central bank kept its benchmark lending rates steady on Friday, with the one-year loan prime rate at 3.1% and the five-year rate at 3.6%. Despite recent stimulus efforts, China's economy continues to face deflationary challenges and weak consumer demand. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index bucked the negative trend in Asian trading on Friday, trading 0.1% higher, whereas mainland China’s CSI 300 was down 0.4%.

Inflation in Japan hits seven-month high

Japan's core-core inflation rate, which excludes fresh food and energy prices, increased to 2.4% in November from 2.3% in October, marking its highest level since April. Headline inflation climbed to 2.9%, its highest since August. Despite these figures, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly held interest rates steady at 0.25% on Thursday.

Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region were trading lower on Friday, following the negative lead from Wall Street. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 0.2% lower, while Korea’s Kospi fell 1.3%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 1.2%.

Bank of England holds interest rates

The Bank of England decided on Thursday to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.75%, after a hot inflation reading a day earlier. The Monetary Policy Committee saw a surprising split, with three members voting for a rate cut, contrary to economists' expectations of only one dissenting vote. BoE staff downgraded their fourth-quarter growth forecast to zero from a previously anticipated 0.3%. UK inflation increased to 2.6% in November, up from 2.3% in October, according to the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday.

German consumer climate shows slight recovery

Consumer sentiment in Germany improved slightly in December, with the GfK Consumer Climate indicator forecast to rise by 1.8 points to -21.3 points in January 2025. This modest recovery follows an increase in income expectations and willingness to buy, despite ongoing high food and energy prices and job security concerns. Economic expectations stabilised, gaining 3.9 points, though the overall outlook for 2025 remains subdued.

European stock indices fell significantly on Thursday. The Euro Stoxx 50 declined 1.6%, Germany’s Dax dropped 1.4% to 19,969.86 points, and France’s CAC 40 decreased by 1.2%. The Swiss Market Index experienced the largest drop, falling 2%.

Swedish policy rate cut to 2.5%

The Riksbank announced on Thursday a 0.25 percentage point reduction in its policy rate to 2.5%, aiming to support economic recovery and stabilise inflation at target levels. Despite some signs of improvement, economic activity remains weak, necessitating further monetary easing. The policy rate has now been reduced by 1.5 percentage points since May.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: German Producer Price Index (08:00), UK retail sales (08:00), Russian interest rate decision (11:30), US personal consumption expenditures (14:30), Canadian retail sales (14:30), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (16:00), Euro-area consumer confidence (16:00).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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