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Stabilisation, consolidation, recovery or just a pause for breath?

After the sharp slump of the last few days, stock markets around the world were able to regain their footing on Tuesday and we currently seem to be observing a certain degree of consolidation or stabilisation. Whether the stock markets can now start to recover or whether the downward trend will continue is difficult to answer. Apart from isolated company news, there is likely to be a lack of real impetus over the next few days. In any case, the stock markets in Asia were able to extend their gains today.

Date
Author
Alessandro Fezzi, LGT Research Content & Publications
Reading time
5 minutes

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The situation on Wall Street stabilised on Tuesday and the share indices were able to extend their gains with positive cues from Asia. The question remains: does the recent weak data from the US labour market indicate a "soft landing" (which the Fed certainly intended) or were they the harbingers of a recession? In any case, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates at the next opportunity. The question here is: how big will the interest rate cut be?

The Dow Jones Industrial closed at 38,997.66 points, corresponding to a daily gain of just under 0.8%. The S&P 500 gained a good 1% and ended the day at 5,240.03 points. On the Nasdaq, the technology-heavy indices also rose by a good 1%. Heavyweight Nvidia, for example, gained nearly 4%. Shares in software and data company Zoominfo, on the other hand, fell by more than 18% following a disappointing quarterly result.

The VIX volatility index, which is seen as an indicator of fear, fell by almost 30 points after reaching its highest level since 2020 at the start of the week. On the bond market, yields rose again to 3.9% as sentiment on the stock markets for ten-year US government bonds improved. During the stock market turbulence at the beginning of the week, the benchmark yield had fallen to as low as 3.7%. The US dollar was able to halt the euro's rally for the time being and is currently trading at just over 1.09.

Continued recovery on Asia's stock markets 

The Asia-Pacific markets were able to extend their gains on Wednesday, following the positive cues from Wall Street. Investor sentiment in Asia was fuelled in particular by a recovery in Japanese equities. The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo rose by a further 2.8% today, continuing yesterday's rally (+10%). On Monday, the index had slumped by more than 12% due to fears of recession. The broad-based Topix rose by more than 4% in volatile trading on Wednesday. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose by over 1%, while mainland China's CSI 300 gained 0.2% following the release of Chinese trade figures. China's imports grew faster than expected in July (+7.2% vs. consensus +3.5%), while export growth missed expectations (+9.7%) with a year-on-year increase of 7% and was slower than the previous month's 8.6%. The South Korean Kospi gained around 2.5% today and the Kosdaq a good 2.6%. The Australian S&P/ASX 200 rose by 0.6%.

Ex-ECB chief Trichet's advice to the Fed: no reason to panic

Former European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet said in an interview with a US television station that he saw no reason for the Fed to cut interest rates urgently between its scheduled meetings. "At this stage, and taking into account everything we know, I don't think it is conceivable that the Fed would trigger such an element of - I wouldn't say panic, but an element of fear that is not necessarily justified," Trichet commented. The Fed is likely to cut rates at its next meeting on 18 September and could be torn between a 25 basis point cut and a 50 basis point cut, the former top European central banker said.

Harris/Walz

The Democratic presidential "ticket" is Kamala Harris and Tim Walz (60), governor of Minnesota. In 2006, Walz was elected to the US House of Representatives, where he served six terms. Since 2018, he has been Governor of Minnesota.

Weak summer business in Europe's retail sector 

Retail sales in the eurozone were weaker than expected in June. Sales volumes fell by 0.3% month-on-month (consensus -0.1%) and also by 0.3% year-on-year (consensus +0.1%).

Corporate and macroeconomic calendars

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Novo Nordisk, Continental, Sony, SoftBank, Ahold Delhaize, Commerzbank, Siemens Energy, Glencore, Beiersdorf, Walt Disney.

Economic data in focus: Trade balance Germany, Swiss foreign currency reserves.

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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