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Weaker job growth paves the way for the Fed - ECB interest rate decision moves into focus

Following last Friday's US labour market report, which came in roughly as expected, and the associated confirmation of expectations of the Fed's first interest rate easing in September, the focus is now shifting to the ECB's interest rate decision this week. Sentiment on Wall Street remained subdued ahead of the weekend, with further pressure in technology stocks weighing on the markets. Stock markets in Asia also opened the new trading week with losses for the most part. 

Date
Author
Alessandro Fezzi, LGT Research Content & Publications
Reading time
5 minutes

Jobs sign
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On the Asia-Pacific stock markets, the Nikkei 225 index led the losses in the region, falling by a good 2%. Japanese GDP for the second quarter came in at 2.9% on an annualised basis, below expectations of 3.2%. Weaker economic growth could limit the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates. In China, consumer prices rose by 0.6% in August compared to July, which was less than expected. Prices for transportation and household goods as well as rents declined. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% year-on-year in August, the second month in a row of slower growth. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index lost 1.9%, while China's CSI 300 fell by 1.1%. The South Korean Kospi fell by 0.9%, while the small-cap Kosdaq gained 0.4%. The Australian S&P/ASX 200 fell by 0.7%.

Weak start to the month on Wall Street - tech stocks remain under pressure 

On the New York Stock Exchange, weaker-than-expected employment growth confirmed expectations of an interest rate turnaround by the Fed, but also fuelled economic concerns. This was compounded by a disappointing outlook from chip company Broadcom, which put further pressure on technology stocks on Friday. As a result, the Nasdaq 100 fell by 2.7% and recorded a weekly loss of almost 6% - the sharpest weekly decline since November 2022. Broadcom shares were particularly in the spotlight, falling by more than 10% on Friday. Nvidia shares were also under pressure, losing around 4%. The potential of artificial intelligence, which is increasingly being questioned by investors, remains the backdrop. The Dow Jones Industrial closed Friday's trading at 40,345.41 points, a drop of 1%. Over the week, the Dow lost just under 3%. The S&P 500 went into the weekend around 1.7% lower at 5408.42 points, down more than 4% over the past week - its biggest weekly loss in around one and a half years. On the bond market, the yield on ten-year US government bonds fell to 3.72%.

Slower US employment growth paves the way for a turnaround in interest rates

The labor market statistics from Washington are likely to have paved the way for the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting on September 18. An easing of 50 basis points now seems likely. The US economy created slightly fewer jobs than expected in August, reflecting a slowdown in the labour market. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 142,000 in the month, up from 89,000 in July and below the consensus forecast of 161,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on Friday. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, as expected.

The highlight of the week: ECB interest rate decision 

The European Central Bank (ECB) is also likely to announce a further easing of its monetary policy as early as next Thursday, with a probable interest rate cut of 25 basis points to support the economy in the euro area and meet market expectations. Expectations of further monetary easing by the ECB were supported by the latest economic indicators, most of which were weak, particularly in Germany. Examples include the latest ifo business climate index, which fell for the third month in a row, and the purchasing managers' index for industry in the eurozone, which at 45.6 points, well below the growth threshold of 50 points, clearly points to a contraction.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Oracle Q1 results.

Economic data in focus: Eurozone Sentix investor confidence.
 

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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