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Chinese manufacturing data boosts sentiment

Improved manufacturing activity in China lifted market sentiment on Monday, with the Caixin/S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surpassing market expectations. This positive momentum was reflected in Asian equity markets, which traded mostly higher on Monday. Meanwhile, investors are gearing up for a week filled with significant economic data releases, including US labour market reports and global PMI figures. Last week, US stocks advanced during a shortened trading day on Friday, while Europe’s last session of the week was also strong, despite a series of weak economic data out of the region.

Date
Author
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Reading time
5 minutes

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© Shutterstock

China's manufacturing activity among smaller firms expanded in November, with the Caixin/S&P Global PMI rising to 51.5, surpassing forecasts of 50.5, according to data released on Monday. It marked the fastest increase in new orders in over three years, indicating a positive impact of recent stimulus measures. The official PMI, released Saturday, also showed growth, increasing to 50.3 from 50.1 in October. While initial signs of stabilisation are promising, sustained improvement will depend on consumer sentiment and additional fiscal spending measures.

Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region were trading mostly higher on Monday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was up 0.1%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 was up 0.5%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 0.9% higher, while Korea’s Kospi edged up 0.2%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was 0.1% higher.

US labour market and global PMI data in focus

This week, market participants will focus on the US employment situation as well as string of PMIs from around the globe. Monday all eyes will be on US ISM Manufacturing PMI as well as manufacturing PMI data out of other major economies. Services PMI data from around the world is due on Wednesday. On Tuesday, Switzerland releases is latest Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will provide insight into the pace of potential further rate cuts by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Similarly, market participants will dissect eurozone retail sales and gross domestic product (GDP) data, due on Thursday and Friday, looking for clues about the future of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy. Finally, the US labour market will be under scrutiny this week with the JOLTS report (Tuesday), ADP National Employment Report (Wednesday) and nonfarm payrolls (Friday) all due.

US stocks gain on Black Friday

US stock indices closed higher on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.4% to 44,910.65 points, testing the 45,000-point mark during the shortened trading session. The S&P 500 increased by 0.6% to 6032.38 points, achieving a new record, while the Nasdaq-100 ended the short session up 0.9% at 20,930.37 points. Gains in chip stocks, driven by easing concerns over US sanctions on China's chip sector, contributed to the positive performance. However, Applied Therapeutics shares plummeted by 76% after the FDA rejected its drug application.

Swiss GDP growth slows

Swiss GDP grew by 0.4% in the third quarter of 2024, down from 0.6% in the previous quarter, according to data released on Friday. Growth was supported by trade, retail, and construction, while manufacturing and goods exports declined. The chemical and pharmaceutical sectors saw minimal growth, and financial services experienced a downturn. On Friday, Switzerland’s SMI gained 0.5%.

German retail sales drop sharply

German retail sales fell by 1.5% in October compared to the previous month, significantly exceeding market expectations of a 0.3% decline, according to data released on Friday. This drop partially reverses gains observed in the third quarter. Despite the monthly downturn, retail sales were up 1% year-on-year. On a more positive note, Germany's jobless rate remained steady at 6.1% in November, matching the rates of September and October, according to data from the Federal Employment Agency released on Friday. Both the Euro Stoxx 50 and Germany’s DAX finished Friday’s session about 1% higher.

Eurozone inflation rises

Eurozone inflation increased to 2.3% in November from 2% in October, surpassing the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2%. The rise was mainly due to a statistical base effect, with underlying inflation holding steady at 2.7%. Services inflation decreased slightly to 3.9% from 4%. Despite the rise in headline inflation, market participants still expect the ECB to cut rates by 25 basis points at its 12 December meeting.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: Swiss retail sales (08:30), Italian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (09:45), French Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (09:50), German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (09:55), euro-area Sentix investor confidence (10:30), Italian gross domestic product (11:00), euro-area unemployment rate (11:00), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (16:00).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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