LGT Navigator

Japanese economic growth beats market expectations

Japan's economy expanded much more rapidly in the fourth quarter than markets had anticipated, driven by increased business spending and a rise in consumption. The data supports Bank of Japan's stance on further interest rate hikes, lifting the yen and Japanese stocks, though most Asian equity markets started the week in the red. Meanwhile, US stocks showed mixed results amid tariff and Ukraine concerns, and European indices mostly declined. Markets will focus on inflation data and central banking activities this week.

Date
Author
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Reading time
5 minutes

Japan Economy
© Shutterstock

Japan's economy expanded by an annualised 2.8% in the fourth quarter, surpassing a forecast of 1%, due to increased business spending and a rise in consumption, according to preliminary data released on Monday. This follows a revised 1.7% growth in the previous quarter. Private consumption grew by 0.1%, while capital expenditure increased by 0.5%, supporting the Bank of Japan's stance on further interest rate hikes. However, the headline figure may be overstated due to reduced imports and year-end bonuses. The upbeat data lifted Tokyo's Nikkei 225, with the stock benchmark trading essentially flat, while most of Asia started the week in the red. The yen strengthened versus the US dollar after the data release.

Mixed Asian trading

Most stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region were trading in the red on Monday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was down 0.2% and mainland China’s CSI 300 was just slightly in negative territory. Tencent shares climbed to their highest level since July 2021, driven by the beta testing of DeepSeek integration with its Weixin messaging app. Other Chinese tech stocks saw mixed reactions following a rare meeting where President Xi Jinping spoke to prominent entrepreneurs, signaling support for the private sector. Korea’s Kospi was up 0.6%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.2%. Additionally, Thailand’s SET Index fell to its lowest level since November 2020 after the country’s fourth-quarter GDP growth missed expectations.

Focus on inflation and central banks this week

This week, markets will focus on inflation data and central banking activities. The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision on Tuesday, followed by the Bank of Canada’s inflation data. Midweek, the UK releases its Consumer Price Index on Wednesday, and the Federal Reserve publishes its meeting minutes. On Thursday, The People’s Bank of China and Turkish central bank will both make monetary policy announcements, and Germany and the euro area release their Producer Price Indices. Finally, Friday sees a slew of Purchasing Managers' Indices from France, Germany, the euro area, and the US.

US stocks mixed amid tariff and Ukraine concerns

Last week, US stock indices showed mixed results during their final session amid ongoing discussions about tariff policies and the US stance on the Ukraine conflict. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4% to 44,546.08 points on Friday, while the S&P 500 was nearly unchanged, finishing at 6114.63 points. The Nasdaq-100, driven by technology stocks, reached a record high, gaining 0.4% to 22,114.69 points. Notably, Airbnb shares surged over 14% on better-than-expected quarterly results, while Informatica shares plummeted more than 21% due to weak fourth-quarter revenue and a disappointing outlook.

US retail sales fall sharply in January

In macroeconomic data, retail sales in the US dropped by 0.9% in January, a significant decline from the upwardly revised 0.7% increase in December, according to data released by the Commerce Department on Friday. This decline was much steeper than the anticipated 0.2% decrease. The report suggests a potential slowdown in economic growth for the first quarter, with consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of US economic activity, showing signs of weakening.

Euro-area GDP rises modestly

The euro area’s GDP grew by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2024, while the EU’s GDP increased by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter, Eurostat reported on Friday. Annually, GDP rose by 0.9% in the euro area and by 1.1% in the EU. European stock indices mostly declined on Friday. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.2%, while Germany’s DAX dropped 0.4% to 22,513.42 points. France’s CAC 40 managed a slight gain of 0.2%, closing at 8178.54 points.

Swiss producer and import prices rise

The Federal Statistical Office reported that the Swiss Producer and Import Price Index increased by 0.1% in January 2025, reaching 106.4 points. This rise was driven by higher prices for petroleum products, watches, and medical instruments, while electricity prices declined. Compared to January 2024, the overall price level for domestic and imported products decreased by 0.3%. The Swiss Market Index decreased by 0.8% on Friday.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from BHP.

Economic data in focus: German Bundesbank monthly report (12:00).

LGT helps you make informed investment decisions

Global economic and market trends at a glance

You can also follow us on Facebook or LinkedIn – or visit Insights and discover interesting background articles. If you have questions, a consultant from the bank will be happy to help you.

Imprint
Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

Contact us