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Market fears fade as data suggest controlled US economic cooling

Equity markets traded high on Thursday after macroeconomic data indicated the US economy may be slowing in a controlled manor. US and European stocks surged on Thursday and the positive sentiment spilled over to Asian stocks at the end of the week. The CBOE Volatility Index - a gauge of market fear - continued to fall on Thursday and is now below where it was prior to the market jitters two weeks ago. Gold dropped and was trading around USD 2450 while the Dollar Index strengthened following the release of the US macroeconomic data.

Date
Author
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Reading time
5 minutes
Market chart
© Shutterstock

US initial jobless claims fell to 227,000 in the week ending August 10, down from 234,000 the previous week. The lower number of applications for unemployment benefits suggests the labour market is cooling off in an orderly fashion, despite recent worried calls from market participants for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates from the current 5.25% to 5.50% range. The market consensus for Fed rate cuts had rapidly moved following a slew of recent weak economic data. US retail sales also reassured traders that the recent weak data doesn’t suggest a disorderly economic unravelling. Retail sales increased by 1.0% in July, surpassing economists' median forecast.

Walmart sales indicate resilient US consumer

Walmart shares shot up 6.6% on Thursday after the company increased forecasts for sales and profits on Thursday. Sales at the world’s largest retailer are considered a gauge for the broader health of US consumer spending habits. Particularly, Walmart noted that demand increased for high-quality meat products and name-brand drugs, a sign that consumers aren’t moving to lower-quality or generic products to save cash.

In New York, Thursday’s solid labour market and consumer data soothed recent recession concerns, causing stock indices to jump. The Dow Jones Industrial finished Thursday’s session up 1.4% and the S&P 500 gained 1.6%. The Nasdaq-100 shot up 2.5%.

Asian stocks follow Wall Street gains

In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese stocks led equity market gains to finish the week. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 exploded 3.1% and in South Korea, the Kospi shot up 1.8%. The Reserve Bank of Australia warned that despite market participants having moved forward expectations for rate cuts, the central bank was still not thinking of easing. That couldn’t stop the Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 from gaining 1.1%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was trading 1.8% higher, while the CSI 300 was trading just slightly in positive territory.

Swiss economy picks up growth pace

Gross domestic product growth in Switzerland is estimated to have accelerated to 0.5% in the second quarter, up from 0.3% in the first quarter, after adjusting for the impact of sporting events. The Swiss government attributed the increase primarily to the industrial sector, with the services sector also contributing to overall growth. Also out of Switzerland on Thursday, the Producer and Import Price Index remained unchanged again in July when compared to the previous month. The index is watched for clues about the future of Swiss consumer prices, which are the basis for the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) monetary policy decisions. The overall price level of both domestic and imported products decreased by 1.7% compared to July 2023, a slower pace than the 1.9% drop seen in June. Import prices drove the year-on-year drop, falling 2.7% since June of last year. Easing consumer inflation was the main concern of the SNB when in June it became the first of the world’s major central banks to cut rates at two consecutive policy meetings during the current cycle. The SMI gained 0.8% on Thursday, less than most European stock market indices on Thursday. The Euro Stoxx 50 finished the day up 1.7% while France’s CAC 40 gained 1.2% and Germany’s DAX was up 1.7%.

UK economic expansion continues

The UK economy expanded by 0.6% in the second quarter, when compared with the previous quarter. That’s slightly slower than the first quarter’s 0.7% growth. Annually, the economy grew by 0.9% in the second quarter, indicating steady progress as the UK recovers from a shallow recession. The Bank of England cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years early this month.

Corporate and macroeconomic calendars

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: German retail sales, UK retail sales, Swiss industrial production, US building permits, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

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Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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