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Mixed market reaction as Powell signals more rate cuts

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated on Monday that the Fed expects to implement two more interest rate cuts by the end of 2024, leading to a mixed reaction on markets. Despite initial pressure, US stocks managed to close in positive territory, while Asian trading was limited on Tuesday due to several major markets being closed for public holidays. Gold and Bitcoin moved little, despite a further escalation in tensions in the Middle East.

Date
Author
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Reading time
5 minutes

USA Interest Rates
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Powell indicated on Monday that the Fed expects to implement two more interest rate cuts, totalling 50 basis points, by the end of the calendar year. The Fed already reduced the policy rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75%-5.00% earlier this month, down from a 20-year high of 5.25%-5.50%. Powell emphasised that future decisions will be data-dependent and made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, reflecting a cautious approach amid ongoing economic uncertainties.

Powell’s comments initially put markets temporarily under pressure on Monday, but thanks to a late rally the major US stock indices were able to close in positive territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.04% to close at 42,330.15 points, while the S&P 500 rose 0.4% to end at 5762.50 points. The Nasdaq-100 added 0.3%, finishing at 20,060.69 points. The US Dollar Index edged up slightly, gaining 0.05% to 100.83, while Treasury yields fell across the curve, with the 2-year yield at 3.6% and the 10-year yield at 3.8%.

Gold remains stable, despite Israeli ground invasion in Lebanon

Israel commenced ground raids in southern Lebanon on Tuesday, targeting Hezbollah with limited and targeted operations. The escalation follows nearly a year of hostilities and recent intensified airstrikes. Despite the geopolitical escalation, gold prices remained stable, trading around USD 2640 per ounce. Gold prices have surged over 13% in the third quarter, marking the best performance since early 2020, driven by US monetary easing and tensions in the Middle East. Last week, the yellow metal reached an all-time high of USD 2685 per ounce.

Asian stocks mixed following decline in factory activity

Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region saw mixed results on Tuesday with markets in Hong Kong, mainland China and South Korea closed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 2% higher, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.7%. Asian factory activity weakened in September, with Japan's PMI dropping to 49.7 from 49.8 in August and Taiwan's PMI falling to 50.8 from 51.5. South Korea's export growth also decelerated due to reduced US demand. However, recent Chinese stimulus measures, including interest rate cuts and liquidity injections, may provide some relief to the region's exporters. Japanese business sentiment remained steady in the third quarter, with the Bank of Japan's "tankan" survey showing the index for big manufacturers at +13, unchanged from June. The survey results, released on Tuesday, will be critical for the Bank of Japan's upcoming monetary policy meeting at the end of October.

German inflation rate slows

Germany's inflation rate for September 2024 is estimated at 1.6% year-on-year, down from 1.9% in August and 2.2% in June. The consumer price index (CPI) remained flat compared to the previous month. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is projected at 2.7%. The final figures will be released next week. Germany’s DAX fell by 0.8% on Monday, while the STOXX Europe 600 remained unchanged.

Given the falling inflation in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, and elsewhere in the euro area, the European Central Bank (ECB) is becoming increasingly confident that inflation will reach and remain near its 2% target. ECB President Christine Lagarde hinted at a potential interest rate cut in October on Monday. Money markets have now almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut for the ECB’s 17 October meeting, up from a 25% probability last week.

Swiss economic outlook improves slightly

The KOF Economic Barometer for Switzerland increased by one point to 101.6 in August, up from a revised 100.6 in July. This modest rise follows a more significant increase in the previous month and indicates a gradual recovery for the Swiss economy. Key contributors to this upward trend include the service sector, consumer demand, and construction, while the financial and insurance sectors experienced a downturn. The manufacturing sector showed mixed results. The Swiss Market Index (SMI) declined 0.5% on Monday.

In the UK, Monday’s macroeconomic data was less rosy. The UK economy grew by 0.5% between April and June, revised down from an initial estimate of 0.6%, due to larger-than-expected declines in the manufacturing and construction sectors.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Nike.

Economic data in focus: Swiss retail sales (08:30), Spanish Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (09:15), Italian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (09:45), French Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (09:50), German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (09:55), euro-area Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (10:00), euro-area Consumer Price Index (11:00), US JOLTS Jobs Report (16:00), US ISM Manufacturing Index (16:00).
 

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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