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Powell signals interest rate cuts

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell spoke clear words in favour of imminent rate cuts at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Friday, pushing up equity markets to finish the week. The Dollar Index slipped, while gold was trading above USD 2500 per ounce again and bitcoin climbed beyond USD 64,000 late on Friday.

Date
Author
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Reading time
5 minutes

Powell
© Shutterstock

Powell indicated an imminent interest rate cut on Friday, emphasising the need to adjust monetary policy due to a weakening labour market. He also expressed confidence that inflation is nearing the central bank's 2% target. Unlike the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, the Fed has not yet initiated rate cuts, but market participants now fully expect the central bank to begin cutting rates at its next monetary policy meeting on 18 September.

In New York, stock markets welcomed Powell’s clear words. The Dow Jones Industrial closed 1.1% higher on Friday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 each gained 1.2%.

European stocks also closed higher across the board on the last session of the week. The Euro Stoxx 50 was up 0.5% on Friday, the CAC 40 finished 0.7% higher, the DAX gained 0.8% and the SMI put on 0.3%.

Inflation in Focus

This week, markets receive an update on how well some of the world’s largest economies are progressing toward their inflation targets and what the current levels mean for the pace of future interest rate cuts. The United States releases Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation – on Friday. Consumer Price Indices (PCI) are due out of Germany (Thursday), France (Friday) and the euro area (Friday). Tokyo inflation (Friday) will also give market participants an indication as to where Japanese national inflation is headed and what it means for the Bank of Japan’s plans to normalise interest rates. Beyond inflation, markets will focus on the strength of US gross domestic product growth in the second quarter (Thursday) and the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August (Friday).

Oil rises on escalation of conflict in Middle East

Oil prices climbed with Brent trading near USD 79 per barrel and U.S. crude futures around USD 75 per barrel. Traders are concerned that the Gaza conflict could escalate and disrupt regional oil supplies. Over the weekend, Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel, prompting Israel's military to respond with strikes on Lebanon using approximately 100 jets. It marks one of the most significant clashes in over ten months of border warfare, raising concerns about the conflict potentially expanding into a larger regional confrontation involving Iran and the United States.

Asian stocks mixed

In the Asia-Pacific region, stock markets didn’t fully embrace the positive sentiment coming out of New York at the end of last week. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 was trading 0.9% lower on Monday and in South Korea, the Kospi lost 0.2%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.6%.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintained the rate on CNY 300 billion worth of one-year medium-term lending facility loans at 2.30%, unchanged from the previous period, while injecting an additional CNY 471 billion through seven-day reverse repos at a stable borrowing cost of 1.70%. This move aligns with market expectations for further easing measures, including a potential near-term reserve requirement ratio cut, as the economy faces challenges from a prolonged property crisis. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index shot up 0.8%, while the CSI 300 was trading 0.4% lower at the end of Monday's session.

Corporate and macroeconomic calendars

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: Riksbank August meeting minutes, Germany’s ifo Business Climate Index, US durable goods orders.

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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