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Asia's stock markets start new week in two worlds, while Wall Street remains in record mood

This week's focus is on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statements in a speech tonight, or the purchasing managers' surveys from the Eurozone, the UK or the US (Tuesday), as well as the consumer prices of the eurozone (Thursday) and, last but not least, the US labour market report, which is crucial for the Fed's further steps (Friday). After a strong week on the stock markets, driven by China's announced economic stimulus measures and expectations of further interest rate cuts, the Chinese stock markets got off to a flying start. In Tokyo, by contrast, the stock indices suffered heavy losses at the start of the week. 

Date
Author
Alessandro Fezzi, LGT Research Content & Publications
Reading time
5 minutes

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Today, stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region were trading in two different worlds. While share prices in mainland China rose by almost 5%, the Japanese Nikkei 225 fell by 4.6% on Monday. This was likely due to the reaction to the results of last Friday's election of the Liberal Democratic Party. In China, the latest purchasing managers' survey indicated that activity continued to shrink. The official Purchasing Managers' Index for China's manufacturing sector came in at 49.8 in September, slightly above expectations of 49.5, but below the growth threshold of 50 for the fifth consecutive month. In the Caixin survey, the industrial PMI fell from 50.4 to 49.3 (consensus 50.5). However, stock markets in China and Hong Kong were unimpressed. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose by 3.3% and in Shanghai the stock market barometer jumped by as much as 5.7%. In Japan, the decline of the Nikkei was led by losses in real estate stocks, while the biggest loser in the index was the department store holding Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings with a drop of 11%. The broad-based Topix fell by 3.3%. At the same time, it was reported that Japanese industrial production in August fell by 3.3% month-on-month and by 4.9% year-on-year. By contrast, Japan's retail sales rose by 2.8% year-on-year in August, beating estimates of 2.3%. The focus is now on Tuesday's quarterly Bank of Japan business survey, the so-called Tankan report. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.7% and reached an all-time high. By contrast, the South Korean Kospi fell by 1.1% and the small-cap index Kosdaq slid by 1.2%.

Dow sets another record - profit-taking on the Nasdaq

On the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones Industrial set another record during the day on Friday and closed at 42,313.0 points (+0.3%). The Dow thus recorded a weekly gain of around 0.6% and remains in a record-breaking mood. The S&P 500 entered the weekend with a slight loss of 0.1% at 5738.17 points after reaching record levels the day before. Profit-taking set in on the Nasdaq on Friday and the indices fell by around 0.5%. Nvidia shares, for example, lost 2%. In the bond market, the yield on ten-year US government securities remained little changed at 3.76%.

Mixed survey results on US consumer sentiment

In contrast to the latest survey by the Conference Board economic research institute, consumer sentiment in the US improved more than expected in September according to the survey results from the University of Michigan. The consumer confidence barometer rose by 2.2 points to 70.1 (consensus 69.4). An important indication of the inflation trend was provided by the personal consumption expenditure price index published on Friday. This indicator weakened to 2.2% from 2.5% in August - the lowest since 2021 - and thus approached the Fed's target. On the other hand, however, the core rate of 2.7% was one point higher than in the previous month. At the same time, consumer spending in August rose by 0.2% month-on-month (+0.5%), lower than the expected 0.3%.

Inflation expectations in the eurozone have fallen

According to the latest survey results from the European Central Bank (ECB), consumer expectations regarding inflation over the next 12 months have fallen slightly. Instead of the previously anticipated mean value of 2.8%, an inflation rate of 2.7% is now expected - the lowest value since September 2021. Most recently, the rate of inflation in the euro area fell to 2.2% in August, the lowest level since mid-2021.

Inflation in France and Spain cools noticeably

Consumer price inflation in France fell more sharply than expected in September. The annual rate of inflation was 1.5% (consensus 1.9%), compared with 2.2% in August and 2.7% in July. In Spain, too, there was a marked decline in inflationary pressure in September. Spanish consumer prices rose by 1.7% year-on-year (consensus 1.9%). In August, the inflation rate was still 2.4% and in July 2.9%. The development is mainly due to the decline in fuel and electricity prices.

Economic sentiment in the eurozone deteriorated somewhat in September

The European Commission's monthly survey showed a slight deterioration in general economic sentiment. The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) fell from 96.5 to 96.2 points, while economists had expected the figure to remain unchanged. The indicator thus remains below the long-term average of 100 points. While sentiment deteriorated in Germany and France, it improved in Italy and Spain.

The positive trend on the European stock markets continued, driven by positive news from China and demand for automotive and luxury goods stocks. The EuroStoxx 50 gained 0.7% on Friday, bringing the weekly gain to more than 4%.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: No relevant company results are due today.

Economic data in focus: Retail sales and initial consumer price data from the federal states of Germany, GDP of the UK, KOF Economic Barometer of Switzerland, consumer prices of Italy, Fed Chairman Powell speaks.
 

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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