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Dollar, oil stronger amid Middle East tensions

US services sector activity surged in September, suggesting strong economic momentum and hinting the Federal Reserve (Fed) may have some flexibility in the pace of further interest rate cuts. US equities slipped on Thursday and the US dollar approached a six-week high. Oil prices remained steady, heading for their largest weekly gains in six weeks amid tensions in the Middle East. In Asia, markets were mixed, with Hong Kong stocks continuing their upward trend to finish the week. European equities ended Thursday in the red amid contracting euro-area business activity.

Date
Author
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Reading time
5 minutes

Oil tanker
© Shutterstock

US services sector activity rose to 54.9 in September, the highest since February 2023, from 51.5 in August, according to the Institute for Supply Management on Thursday. The new orders index surged to 59.4, while the services employment index fell to 48.1, indicating a slowdown in hiring. This data, alongside strong consumer spending and a smaller goods trade deficit, suggests robust economic momentum in the third quarter. The data could allow the Fed room to slow down its pace of interest rate decreases with markets expecting cuts again in November and December due to growing labour market risks. Positive for the health of the economy was news that US dock workers and port operators reached a tentative agreement on Thursday to end a three-day strike affecting 36 ports.

Also out of the US, the Department of Labor reported on Thursday that seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims for the week ending September 28 increased to 225,000, up from 219,000 the previous week. On Friday, US nonfarm payrolls will give more insight in to the strength of the labour market.

US stocks edge lower, dollar nears six-week high

US equities slipped on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42,011.59 points, losing 0.4%, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.2% to finish at 5699.94 points. The Nasdaq-100 fell 0.1% to 19,793.34 points. US Treasury yields fell across the curve, with the two-year yield near 3.7% and the ten-year yield around 3.8%.

The US dollar index was near 101.9 on Friday, close to a six-week high of 102.1 reached on Thursday and marking a 1.5% increase for the week, its strongest performance since April. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen experienced its worst weekly performance since 2016, declining about 3% due to uncertainty over Japan's monetary policy.

Hong Kong stocks continue to surge

Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region were mixed on Friday with equities in Hong Kong resuming their rally from earlier in the week. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 2.1%. Markets in mainland China remained closed for the Golden Week holiday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 0.2% higher, while Korea’s Kospi rose 0.4%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.7%.

Oil prices steady, headed for strong weekly gain

Oil prices remained stable on Friday, with Brent crude just below USD 78 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate under USD 74 per barrel, although both benchmarks are set for weekly gains of approximately 8%, their largest weekly gains in six weeks. Market concerns over potential disruptions due to Middle East conflicts were balanced by ample global supply and recent economic stimulus measures in China. Additionally, the reopening of Libya's oilfields and export terminals has alleviated some supply constraints. Concerns about the situation in the Middle East also drove gold higher again to around USD 2670 per ounce.

Euro-area business activity contracts

Euro-area business activity contracted in September, with HCOB's composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropping to 49.6 from August's 51.0, marking the first contraction since February. Despite this, the figure was better than the preliminary estimate of 48.9. The services PMI fell to 51.4 from 52.9, indicating slower growth. The data supports calls for another interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) after inflation in the euro zone decreased to 1.8% last month, below the central bank’s 2% target.

Also out of Europe, industrial producer prices in the euro area increased by 0.6% in August 2024 compared to July 2024, while the EU saw a 0.4% rise, according to Eurostat data released on Thursday.

European stock indices closed lower on Thursday. The STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.9%, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 posted losses of 0.8% and 1.3%, respectively.

Swiss CPI declines in September

The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% in September to 107.2 points, following a 0.2% rise in August. Year-on-year inflation was 0.8%. The monthly decline was driven by lower prices for international package holidays, supplementary accommodation, air transport, petrol, heating oil, and diesel. The Swiss Market Index decreased by 1.1% on Thursday.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: Swiss unemployment rate (07:45), US nonfarm payrolls (14:30), US unemployment rate (14:30).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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