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Economic stimulus package provides strong boost for China's stock markets

Chinese stock markets are recording the best trading week in almost 16 years, in Hong Kong even the strongest week since 1998! On Wall Street, investors were also in a buying mood again, driving the broad S&P 500 to a new record high. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points, as expected, and significantly revised its inflation forecast downwards. 

Date
Author
Alessandro Fezzi, LGT Research Content & Publications
Reading time
5 minutes

China flag and currency
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The CSI 300 rose by almost 4% at times on Friday, driven by the Chinese central bank's announced economic stimulus measures, to record its strongest weekly gain since 2008. The Hong Kong stock exchange also recorded a daily gain of 2.7%, marking its best week since February 1998. In Shanghai, the stock market barometer also rose by around 2.7% today. Other stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region also recorded mostly gains on Friday. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 was up 1.7% and the broad-based Topix gained 0.3%. According to the latest data, the inflation rate in the capital Tokyo fell to 2.2% in August from 2.6% in the previous month. By contrast, the South Korean Kospi fell by around 0.3% and in Australia the S&P/ASX 200 traded only moderately 0.1% higher, but close to its recent all-time high.

Record hunt continues on New York Stock Exchange

The broad S&P 500 reached another record high of around 5767 on Thursday and ended trading at 5745.37 points, 0.4% higher. The Dow Jones Industrial closed at 42,175.11 points, 0.6% higher. On the technology exchange Nasdaq, the indices rose by around 0.7% by the end of the day. The latest economic indicators from the US were slightly better than expected in the majority of cases. The number of initial jobless claims fell by 4000 to 218,000 last week, while economists had forecast an increase to 223,000. Meanwhile, in US industry, orders for durable goods stagnated in August (consensus -2.6%), after orders had risen by almost 10% in August. Orders for capital goods excluding the military and aerospace sectors – an indicator of corporate investment appetite – rose by 0.2%. Finally, the US economy grew at a slightly faster pace than assumed, expanding at an annualised rate of 3.0% in Q2, rather than 2.9% as previously thought. In Q1, GDP growth had been a mere 1.6%.

The yield on ten-year US government bonds is currently trading at 3.8%, slightly higher than in recent days. The US dollar continued to trade against the euro just below the 1.12 mark.

SNB follows the cycle of interest rate cuts with further monetary easing

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 1.0%, in a move that had been widely anticipated on capital markets. This interest rate move also marks the departure of SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan, who has been in office since 2012 and will hand over the leadership of the SNB to Martin Schlegel. At the same time, the SNB lowered its inflation projection: it now expects inflation to average 1.2% in the current year (previously 1.3%) and to fall to 0.6% in 2025 (previously 1.1%) and to remain at a low level of 0.7% (1.0%) in 2026. According to the SNB's assessment, inflationary pressure in Switzerland has again eased considerably compared to the previous quarter, thanks in part to the appreciation of the franc over the last three months and lower oil prices. In the outlook, the SNB is keeping further interest rate cuts open ‘if these are necessary to ensure price stability in the medium term’. With regard to economic growth, the central bank left its previous forecast unchanged: 1.0% for 2024 and 1.5% for 2025.

On the Swiss stock market, the leading SMI index rose by 0.5% on Thursday, continuing its upward trend since the beginning of the week.

Leading German economic research institutes lower economic forecast

In addition to the economic weakness, the German economy is also being weighed down by structural change - keywords: decarbonisation, digitalisation or demographic change. In their revised forecast, the leading institutes now expect GDP to decline by 0.1% in the current year. For 2025 and 2026, average growth of 0.8% (previously 1.4%) and 1.3% respectively is expected.

German consumer sentiment remains gloomy

According to the latest survey results from the Nuremberg-based consumer research company GfK, the mood of German consumers improved only marginally in September and remains at a low level. Thanks to higher income expectations, the economic climate index rose marginally from minus 21.9 to minus 21.2 points. The long-term average is plus 10 points. GfK speaks of a ‘stabilisation at a low level’ and the current mood among consumers remains generally fragile.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: No relevant company results are due today.

Economic data in focus: Consumer prices in France, GDP and consumer prices in Spain, European Commission surveys on economic sentiment, consumer spending and income, as well as the PCE core inflation indicator and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.  
 

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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