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Middle East tensions elevate market volatility

Geopolitical tensions surged after an Iranian missile attack on Israel, raising concerns about a broader regional conflict. This escalation drove oil prices higher and briefly spiked gold, while the CBOE Volatility Index, which acts as a gauge of market fear, shot up. US and European stock markets closed lower on Tuesday, while Asian markets showed mixed performance on Wednesday with Hong Kong stocks rallying after reopening from a holiday.

Date
Author
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Reading time
5 minutes

Volatility
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Iran declared on Wednesday that its missile attack on Israel, the largest military assault on the country, had ended unless further provoked. The attack, which involved nearly 200 ballistic missiles, was described by Iran as a defensive response to Israeli actions against Hezbollah and in Gaza. Israeli and US defence forces intercepted nearly all the missiles, with no known fatalities in Israel. The United States and Israel have vowed severe retaliation, with US forces intercepting numerous missiles. The conflict has heightened fears of a broader regional war, as Israel continues its bombardment of Hezbollah targets in Beirut.

Oil prices surge, gold spikes briefly

Brent crude oil futures rose to USD 74.93, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures increased to USD 71.27 per barrel, driven by escalating Middle East tensions following Iran’s missile attack on Israel. This increase follows a more than 5% surge in both benchmarks on Tuesday. The attack has raised concerns about potential disruptions to oil supply from the region, particularly from Iran, an OPEC member whose oil output reached 3.7 million barrels per day in August. An OPEC+ panel meeting later Wednesday is expected to review the market without policy changes.

Traders immediately sought safety after the attack. Gold prices initially shot up but retreated later on Tuesday and were trading around USD 2650 per ounce. The CBOE Volatility Index, which acts as a gauge of market fear, spiked late Tuesday. Yields on US Treasuries declined across the curve, with the 2-year yield at 3.6% and the 10-year yield at 3.7%.

Hong Kong shares jump on reopening

Markets in mainland China remained closed for the Golden Week holiday. Hong Kong’s markets, however, reopened on Tuesday with a bang with the Hang Seng Index surging 6.8%. Other major indices in the Asia-Pacific region were mostly lower on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 2% lower, while Korea’s Kospi fell 0.7%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down by 0.1%.

US Manufacturing PMI unchanged

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Tuesday that its US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) remained steady at 47.2 in September, matching August's figure but falling short of market expectations for slight improvement. Similarly, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday that job openings remained unchanged at 8 million in August, down by 1.3 million from a year earlier. Hires and total separations also showed little change at 5.3 million and 5 million, respectively.

The weak macroeconomic data wasn’t sufficient to support US equity markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.4% to 42,156.97 points, while the S&P 500 fell 0.9% to 5708.75 points. The Nasdaq-100 led the losses, declining 1.4% to 19,773.30 points.

Euro-area inflation falls below ECB target

Euro-area inflation fell to 1.8% in September, down from 2.2% in August and below the European Central Bank’s 2% target, according to Eurostat data released on Tuesday. Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, decreased to 2.7% from 2.8% in August. The decline in inflation follows similar trends in key economies like France and Germany and supports calls for another rate cut by the ECB later this month.

European stock indices showed mixed performance on Tuesday. The STOXX Europe 600 edged down 0.4%, while Germany’s DAX fell 0.6% and France’s CAC 40 decreased 0.8%.

German manufacturing PMI hits 12-month low

Manufacturing activity in Europe’s industrial powerhouse, Germany, contracted further in September, with the HCOB Manufacturing PMI falling to 40.6 from 42.4 in August, marking a 12-month low. The report highlighted significant drops in output, new orders, employment, and stocks, alongside negative production expectations due to concerns over demand, geopolitical tensions, and economic conditions.

Swiss retail sales rose in August

Swiss retail trade turnover increased by 1.9% in August compared with the same month a year earlier, marking the sharpest rise since June. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.2% from the previous month. Real turnover, adjusted for sales days and holidays, increased by 3.2% year-on-year, driven by declining inflation. A day earlier, the KOF Economic Barometer, an early indicator of the health of the Swiss economy, ticked up a bit, indicating a gradual recovery for the Swiss economy. Conversely, the Swiss Market Index dropped 0.8%, continuing its downward trend.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: euro-area unemployment rate (11:00), US ADP National Employment Report (14:15), Swiss National Bank Quarterly Bulletin (15:00).
 

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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