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SNB sees uncertain economic outlook amid global risks

Escalating trade wars with the world’s largest economy are having an uncertain impact on the outlook for Switzerland’s economy, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) said on Wednesday. Meanwhile, European equities were under pressure as the US made more new tariff announcements, and US stock indices fell on Wednesday amid a selloff in Big Tech. In Asia, markets traded mixed on Thursday, with carmakers declining following the US tariff announcement.

  • Date
  • Author Shane Strowmatt, LGT
  • Reading time 5 minutes

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The economic outlook for Switzerland has become considerably more uncertain due to increased trade and geopolitical risks worldwide, the SNB said in its Quarterly Bulletin on Wednesday. Protectionist measures and growing trade tensions could significantly impact global trade and the Swiss economy. The SNB expects GDP growth of 1% to 1.5% for 2025, supported by rising real wages and loose monetary policy, but tempered by subdued foreign trade. Recent economic developments have been favourable, according to the SNB, with Switzerland's GDP growing by 2% in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by strong performance in the chemicals/pharmaceuticals industry and favourable developments in the services sector. The SMI lost 0.6% on Wednesday.

Trump’s auto tariffs impact European carmakers

European automakers, including Volkswagen, Mercedes Benz, and BMW, are under pressure following US President Donald Trump’s announcement on Wednesday of permanent 25% tariffs on imported cars and light trucks. The European automobiles and parts index hit a seven-week low and is expected to decline further. Volkswagen, which sources 43% of its US sales from Mexico, is particularly vulnerable. European stock indices were broadly lower on Wednesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 1.2%, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 declined by 1.2% and 1%, respectively.

Big Tech stocks drag Nasdaq lower

Large US tech stocks saw significant declines on Wednesday, pulling the Nasdaq down by 1.8% to 19,916.99 points. The Dow Jones Industrial closed 0.3% lower at 42,454.79 points, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.1% to 5712.20 points. Market sentiment was dampened by weak consumer confidence data and upcoming tariffs. Notably, Nvidia and Tesla shares fell by 5.7% and 5.6%, respectively. Tariffs were also affecting macroeconomic indicators released Wednesday with US durable goods orders increasing by 0.9% in February, driven by businesses front-loading purchases ahead of impending tariffs, according to the Commerce Department. This follows a revised 3.3% rise in January. However, core capital goods orders, a key indicator of business investment, fell by 0.3%, indicating potential future weakness.

Asia-Pacific markets mixed on tariff news

Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region were trading mixed on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 0.9% lower, while Korea’s Kospi fell 1.3%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was 0.4% lower. In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.9% and mainland China’s CSI 300 was up 0.4%. The new US tariffs on foreign-made cars impacted Asian automakers midweek. Japanese companies Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, and Mitsubishi saw declines, as did South Korea's Kia Motors and Chinese firms Nio and Xpeng.

UK inflation cools, growth forecast cut

UK inflation decreased to 2.8% in February, slightly below analyst expectations of 2.9%, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday. Core inflation, excluding volatile items, fell to 3.5% from 3.7% in January. The primary downward pressure came from clothing and footwear. Despite this, the Bank of England anticipates a temporary rise to 3.7% later this year due to increasing energy costs. Meanwhile, the Office for Budget Responsibility halved its 2025 growth forecast to 1% while predicting gradual recovery in subsequent years.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Next, Symrise, Walgreens Boots Alliance. Annual general meetings at ABB, Novo Nordisk.

Economic data in focus: Norges Bank interest rate decision (10:00), US gross domestic product (13:30), US weekly initial jobless claims (13:30), European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks (19:05).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.