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Strong US economic data sets off stock, bond market sell-off

US stocks closed lower on Tuesday as strong economic data spurred a sell-off in bonds, driving Treasury yields to an eight-month high. The robust macroeconomic data heightened inflation concerns, tempering expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and putting pressure on technology stocks, which led to significant losses in the Nasdaq indices. Asian markets were mixed on Wednesday, while European stocks mostly gained on Tuesday.

Date
Author
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Reading time
5 minutes

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The US dollar strengthened on Tuesday, buoyed by higher Treasury yields following robust US economic data. The Dollar Index gained 0.3% Tuesday, while the 10-year Treasury yield reached an eight-month high, trading just under 4.7%. The sell-off in bonds was precipitated by strong economic data out of the US. The US services sector continued its growth for the sixth consecutive month in December, with the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 54.1, according to Tuesday’s data release. This figure was well ahead of market expectations and November's 52.1. Additionally, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job openings remained stable at 8.1 million in November. The figure was likewise ahead of market expectations.

Treasury yields put brakes on equity market

The spike in Treasury yields put US stocks under pressures on Tuesday as investors took profits from technology stocks, in particular. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.8% to 21,173.04 points, with Nvidia shares losing 6.2% after hitting a record high earlier in the day. The S&P 500 decreased by 1.1% to 5909.03 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4% to 42,528.36 points.

Asia-Pacific markets mixed amid rising Treasury yields

Asia-Pacific markets experienced mixed performance on Wednesday as rising US Treasury yields negatively impacted Wall Street. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.2%, while Korea’s Kospi surged 1.2%, bolstered by gains in Samsung Electronics despite its disappointing profit forecast. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.9% and mainland China’s CSI 300 was essentially flat, down 0.1%, with Tencent Holdings continuing to drop after being labelled a "Chinese military company" by the US Department of Defense. Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.8%, supported by positive inflation data.

Swiss inflation continues to slow

The Swiss Federal Statistical Office reported on Tuesday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% in December. Inflation fell to 0.6% year-on-year in December, down from 0.7% in November. This marks the fourth consecutive month of inflation below 1%, increasing market expectations for a 25-basis point rate cut by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in March. The market is now pricing in a nearly 100% probability of a rate cut at the SNB’s next policy meeting. In 2024, annual inflation averaged 1.1%, down from 2.1% in 2023. The Swiss Market Index outperformed other European stock indices on Tuesday, gaining 1.2%

Euro-area inflation rises

Euro-area inflation as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by 2.4% year-over-year in December, in line with market expectations. This marks a slight increase from the previous month’s 2.2%. Core HICP inflation, excluding food and energy, also matched forecasts at 2.7%. Reactions were mixed but market participants generally still expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue its easing policies, as HICP is expected to fall below the central bank’s 2% target in the coming months.

European stock indices were mostly higher on Tuesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.5%, Germany’s DAX climbed 0.6%, and France’s CAC 40 increased 0.6%.

UK borrowing costs reach 27-year high

The yield on 30-year UK government bonds rose to over 5.2% on Tuesday, the highest level since 1998, following an auction of GBP 2.25 billion worth of gilts. Yields on shorter-term gilts also increased amid economic concerns. The rise was attributed to fears of stagflation and uncertainty over the Labour government's fiscal policies. The Bank of England's cautious stance on interest rate cuts has further contributed to the tepid demand for long-term debt.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: German retail sales (08:00), US ADP National Employment Report (14:15), Federal Reserve FOMC meeting minutes (20:00).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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