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Trade tensions weigh on global markets

Investor anxiety ahead of the next round of US tariffs was keeping markets around the globe under pressure to start the week. Despite China reporting its highest manufacturing PMI in 12 months, Asian stocks tumbled on Monday as market participants speculated on the potential impact of the new US tariffs. Gold reached a record high as investors sought safe-haven assets, while US markets ended last week sharply down on recession concerns.

  • Date
  • Author Shane Strowmatt, LGT
  • Reading time 5 minutes

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China's official manufacturing PMI reached 50.5 in March, the highest in 12 months, driven by robust new orders, according to data released on Monday. The non-manufacturing PMI also rose to 50.8, indicating improved domestic demand and foreign buyers accelerating purchases ahead of anticipated US trade tariffs. Despite this growth, ongoing trade tensions with the US could dampen future economic performance. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 1.6% on Monday and mainland China’s CSI 300 dropped 0.9%.

Asia-Pacific stocks under pressure as next tariffs loom

Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region were trading significantly lower on Monday with investor uncertainty remaining high ahead of the next round of tariff’s expected from US President Donald Trump on Wednesday. Korea’s Kospi fell 2.9% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 1.7%. Leading losses was Japan’s Nikkei 225, which was trading 3.9% lower, despite Japan's factory output increasing by 2.5% in February and surpassing market consensus. Despite this growth, manufacturers anticipate minimal increases of 0.6% in March and 0.1% in April due to cooling retail sales and external economic pressures, including US tariffs. Automakers are particularly concerned about the impact of upcoming US tariffs on auto imports, which are significant for Japan's export economy.

Gold hits record high amid trade war fears

Gold surged to a record high of USD 3115.79 per ounce on Monday as escalating trade war concerns drove investors to seek safe-haven assets. The precious metal has gained over 8% this month, with spot gold rising 0.9% to surpass USD 3110 per ounce. The dollar's 0.2% decline against other currencies also contributed to gold's appeal.

US labour market and central banks in focus

This week, the focus shifts to key US labour market data and central banks’ monetary policy decisions. Details about the health of the US labour market will trickle out throughout the week, including JOLTS job openings (Tuesday), ADP employment change (Wednesday), and non-farm payrolls (Friday). In central banking, the Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision on Tuesday, while the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy accounts on Thursday will provide clues about the future of monetary policy in the economic bloc. Additionally, economic releases out of some of the world’s largest economies are expected with the euro-area Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) due on Tuesday.

US markets tumble on recession fears

US stock markets extended recent losses on Friday, driven by concerns about a potential US recession and global trade tensions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.7% to 41,583.90 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 declined by 2% and 2.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index - a gauge of market fear - surged 15.8%. Macroeconomic data exacerbated weak market sentiment with core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in the US reaching 2.8% year-on-year in February, exceeding market expectations. The Federal Reserve’s focus on the PCE inflation measure suggests continued caution in adjusting interest rates. Also released on Friday was the University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers, which showed a reading of 57.0, an 11.9% decrease from February and a 28.2% drop from a year ago. The decline, driven by rising inflation concerns, was worse than economists had anticipated.

Swiss economic outlook improves in March

The KOF Economic Barometer increased by 1.3 points to 103.9 in March, following a decline in the previous month, according to data released on Friday. This rise reflects positive developments in manufacturing, construction, and other services, while consumer demand indicators also improved. However, indicators for intermediate goods showed a slight setback. The outlook for the Swiss economy remains robust, staying above the long-term average since the beginning of the year. The Swiss Market Index edged down by 0.2% on Friday.

German consumer climate stabilises at low level

Consumer sentiment in Germany showed slight improvement following recent parliamentary elections, with economic and income expectations rising. However, a significant increase in the willingness to save has kept the overall Gfk Consumer Climate Index nearly unchanged, increasing by just 0.1 points to -24.5 points for April 2025. Despite improved economic expectations, ongoing uncertainty continues to dampen consumer willingness to spend. European equity markets were under pressure on Friday. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.9%, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 both posted declines of 1% and 0.9%, respectively.

UK GDP growth stagnates in fourth quarter

The UK economy recorded a modest 0.1% GDP growth in the final quarter of 2024, consistent with previous estimates, according to the Office for National Statistics on Friday. This follows zero growth in the third quarter and a 0.1% GDP decline in January 2025. Household savings surged to 12%, the highest since 2010 excluding the pandemic, reflecting economic uncertainty.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: German retail sales (08:00), German Consumer Price Index (14:00).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.