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Yen gains, Nikkei falls after BOJ hike

The yen appreciated and Japanese government bond yields reached multi-year highs on Friday following an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Japanese stocks faced pressure from the stronger yen, while other major Asia-Pacific indices posted gains. Particularly, Chinese stocks surged on optimism over US-China trade relations after positive remarks from US President Donald Trump. US markets also reacted positively to Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum, continuing their recent winning streak. In other central banking news, Norges Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.5% and indicated a likely rate reduction in March, while the Turkey’s central bank reduced its policy rate from 47.5% to 45% on Thursday.

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Author
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Reading time
5 minutes

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The yen appreciated and Japanese government bond yields reached multi-year highs on Friday after the BOJ increased interest rates by 25 basis points, raising short-term lending rates to 0.5%. The yen strengthened by approximately 0.5% to slightly above 155 per USD, while the two-year JGB yield rose above 0.7%, the highest since October 2008. The BOJ also revised its core consumer inflation forecast to 2.4% for fiscal 2025, up from 1.9% in the previous projection. Meanwhile, Japanese core inflation increased to a 16-month high, rising 3% year-on-year in December, suggesting room for more hikes by the BOJ. Japanese stocks were the outlier on Friday, trading in the red while most major Asia-Pacific equity indices were making gains. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading slightly lower, down 0.08%, pressured by the stronger yen. Korea’s Kospi rose 0.8%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.4%.

Soft Trump tone supports Chinese stocks

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 2.1% and mainland China’s CSI 300 was up 0.8% on Friday after Trump expressed optimism about reaching a trade agreement with China following a "friendly" conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping last week. While Trump has proposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports due to fentanyl concerns, he has not yet imposed these tariffs. The US-China relationship remains strained by economic and diplomatic disputes, including trade practices and technological competition.

Trump demands lower rates, oil prices

Trump, in his first address to global leaders since his inauguration, called for OPEC to reduce oil prices and urged worldwide interest rate cuts during a virtual speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday. Trump warned of tariffs on products not made in the US and criticised allies like Canada and the European Union. His remarks pressured oil prices. Trump also announced plans to seek talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Ukraine and nuclear arms reduction.

US markets welcomed the speech with US stock markets continuing their recent winning streak on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% to 44,565.07 points and the S&P 500 gained 0.5% to 6118.71 points. The Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.2% to 21,900.93 points.

US jobless claims rise slightly

US weekly jobless claims increased by 6000 to 223,000 for the week ending January 18, according to data released on Thursday. Despite the rise, the labour market remains robust, with unadjusted claims dropping by 68,135 to 284,222. Continuing claims also rose by 46,000 to 1.899 million, the highest level since November 2021. Economists attribute the slight increase to factors such as California wildfires and adverse weather conditions, but overall, the data suggests minimal stress in job markets, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at its upcoming meeting.

EU consumer confidence stable in January

Consumer confidence in the EU remained unchanged in January 2025, while the euro area saw a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points, according to data released by the European Commission on Thursday. The consumer confidence indicator stood at -13.3 points for the EU and -14.2 points for the euro area, both below their long-term averages.

European stock indices closed mixed on Thursday. The Euro Stoxx 50 edged up 0.2%, while Germany’s DAX was essentially flat and France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.7%. The Swiss Market Index increased by 0.4%.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from American Express, Givaudan, NextEra Energy, and Verizon.

Economic data in focus: World Economic Forum in Davos (last day), French Purchasing Managers’ Index (09:15), German Purchasing Managers’ Index (09:30), euro-area Purchasing Managers’ Index (10:00), UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (10:30), European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks (11:00), US Purchasing Managers’ Index (15:45), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (16:00), US existing home sales (16:00).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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