LGT Navigator

China’s inflation drop raises growth concerns

China’s consumer price index (CPI) fell into negative territory for the first time in over a year, raising doubts about the country's economic growth prospects amid weak domestic consumption and trade tensions with the US. Chinese stocks led declines in the Asia-Pacific region on Monday, while US markets ended last week on a positive note despite a challenging period. Investors are now turning their attention to key inflation data from the US and Europe this week, as well as Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) figures, to gauge the next moves in global monetary policy.

Date
Auteur
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Temps de lecture
5 minutes

Chinese market
© Shutterstock

China's CPI dropped by 0.7% year-on-year in February, marking its first negative reading since January of last year, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Sunday. The data raises concerns about China's ability to achieve its 5% GDP growth target amid weak domestic consumption and ongoing trade tensions with the US. Adding to market uncertainty were retaliatory tariff measures from China on some Canadian agricultural goods, which were announced at the weekend. China's sovereign bond yields surged on Monday as investors reduced holdings amid expectations of increased fiscal spending and delayed interest rate cuts. In equities, Chinese stocks were the only major indices in the Asia-Pacific region in the red to start the week. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was down 1.8% and mainland China’s CSI 300 was trading 0.6% lower. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 0.4% higher, while Korea’s Kospi gained 0.3%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 edged up 0.2%.

Inflation data in focus

This week, markets are set to scrutinise a series of key inflation indicators to gauge the trajectory of global monetary policy. In the United States, the Consumer Price Index is released on Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ JOLTS report will provide insight into the health of the labour market on Tuesday. Out of Europe, Germany releases its harmonised CPI on Friday, while the euro area’s industrial production figures are due on Thursday. In Asia, all eyes are on Japan’s fourth-quarter GDP data due on Tuesday. In central banking, the Bank of Canada’s interest rate announcement is due on Wednesday.

US stocks rise despite sluggish week

US stocks rebounded slightly on Friday after a challenging week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 0.5% to 42,801.72 points, despite a weekly loss of 2.4%. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% on Friday to finish at 5770.20 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 climbed 0.7% to 20,201.37 points. The CBOE Volatility Index - a gauge of market fear - dropped by 6%, reflecting eased trader concerns after a volatile week.

US payroll growth slows in February

Monthly employment data were solid but did not spur significant market movement on Friday. US nonfarm payrolls rose by 151,000 in February, falling short of the market expectation, but exceeding January's revised figure of 125,000, the Labor Department reported. The unemployment rate increased slightly to 4.1%. Despite job creation in sectors like health care and financial activities, federal employment dropped by 10,000 due to workforce reductions under Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.

Euro-area GDP rises modestly in fourth quarter

Eurostat reported that seasonally adjusted GDP in the euro area increased by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the previous quarter's 0.4% growth. Annual GDP growth was 0.9% for the euro area and 1% for the EU. European stock indices fell on Friday. The Euro Stoxx 50 declined by 0.8%, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 dropped by 1.8% and 0.9%, respectively. The Swiss Market Index managed a modest gain of 0.4%.

Mark Carney to become Canada's prime minister

Mark Carney, former central banker, will replace Justin Trudeau as Canada's prime minister, official results showed on Sunday. Carney secured 86% of the votes, defeating Chrystia Freeland. His leadership begins amid a trade war with the US under President Trump, who has imposed tariffs on Canada. Carney has vowed to maintain retaliatory tariffs until the US respects Canadian interests.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Oracle.

Economic data in focus: German trade balance (08:00), Sentix investor confidence (10:30).

LGT helps you make informed investment decisions

Global economic and market trends at a glance

You can also follow us on Facebook or LinkedIn – or visit Insights and discover interesting background articles. If you have questions, a consultant from the bank will be happy to help you.

Imprint
Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

Prendre contact