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ECB leaves rates unchanged

The European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged, a move in line with market expectations, but left the option open for another cut at its next meeting in September. In US politics, Donald Trump officially accepted the nomination as the presidential candidate for the Republican party on Thursday, while more Democrats expressed their doubt about President Joe Biden’s ability to win, if he remains in the election. Equity markets fell around the globe late in the week. 

Date
Auteur
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Temps de lecture
5 minutes
Christine Lagarde
© Shutterstock

The ECB said it is still looking for convincing evidence that inflation will fall below its 2% target. Particularly, the central bank noted that the labour market remains resilient and inflation is likely to remain above the ECB’s target well into 2025. Data released Wednesday showed inflation in the euro area fell slightly to 2.5% on an annual basis in June. Last month, the ECB cut rates by 25 basis points, but clouded the outlook for future potential rate cuts by raising its inflation projections for 2025 to 2.2%, up from a previous 2%. The euro fell slightly versus the US dollar after Thursday’s announcement. The Euro Stoxx 50 lost 0.4% on Thursday.

Elsewhere in Europe, wages in the UK excluding bonuses cooled, but remained much higher than the Bank of England would like to see at 5.7% growth in the three months ending in May. That caused more market participants push back their expectations for a rate cut from the central bank, the next of which is due at its next policy meeting in two weeks.

Chipmakers stabilise

In New York, stock markets were down across the board. After multiple sessions of chasing new highs, the Dow Jones Industrial dropped 1.3% on Thursday. The S&P 500 fell 0.8%. The Nasdaq-100 lost 0.5% but losses were limited by gains at some chipmaking stocks. TSMC’s US-listed stock closed ahead of the market, up 0.4%, after the company raised its revenue projections for 2024 and beat market expectations for its quarterly results on Thursday. The results were largely interpreted as keeping the artificial intelligence growth narrative for the chip and software industries alive. A day earlier, chipmakers including TSMC came under pressure following a media report stating that the US is considering further restrictions to chip sales to China. Also negative for TSMC stock this week were comments from presidential hopeful Donald Trump, who said Taiwan should have to pay for its military protection from the US. Nvidia (+2.6%) and Intel (+1.2%) were among Thursday’s winners.

Japanese inflation rate unchanged

In the Asia-Pacific region, stock markets followed Wall Street down on Friday. Japanese national inflation remained unchanged from the previous month at 2.8% on an annual basis in June, but core inflation - which excludes fresh food - increased to 2.6% from 2.5% in May. Most market participants do not expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at its policy meeting at the end of the month. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 was trading 0.1% lower on Friday. The bounce in chipmaking stocks was also felt in Japan, with Tokyo Electron trading 2.4% higher. In South Korea, the Kospi lost 1.2%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.9%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was leading regional losses, dropping 2.1%. Here, too, chipmakers were trading higher with Hua Hong Semiconductor gaining 7.4% on Friday. The mainland CSI 300 was up 0.4%.

Corporate and macroeconomic calendars

Corporate news in focus: Earnings figures from Sartorius, Schindler, American Express.

Economic data in focus: German Producer Price Index, UK retail sales.

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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