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Germany's fiscal reforms boost European markets

Germany's Bundestag approved significant fiscal reforms on Tuesday, lifting European equity markets. German stocks led regional gains. In the US, stocks declined ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision, while Asian markets traded mixed on Wednesday. Gold prices continue to push into new territory, reaching more all-time highs this week.

  • Date
  • Auteur Shane Strowmatt, LGT
  • Temps de lecture 5 minutes

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Germany's Bundestag voted on Tuesday to approve significant fiscal reforms, including changes to the debt brake rule and a EUR 500 billion infrastructure and climate fund. The package aims to boost defence spending and economic growth. The reforms still require approval from the Bundesrat on Friday to be enacted. Markets saw in the changes a potential boost for Germany's stagnant economy, propping up European equity markets on Tuesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.6%, while Germany’s DAX climbed 1% and France’s CAC 40 added 0.5%. The Swiss Market Index was essentially flat.

German economic sentiment surges

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany increased significantly in March, reaching 51.6 points, which is 25.6 points higher than the previous month. This improvement, the largest since January 2023, is attributed to positive signals about future fiscal policy and favourable financing conditions following the ECB's sixth consecutive interest rate cut. The current economic situation indicator rose slightly by 0.9 points to minus 87.6 points. Economic sentiment in the euro area also improved, with the indicator rising by 15.6 points to 39.8 points.

Gold hits another record amid Middle East conflict

Gold prices marched on to another new high as investors sought safe-haven assets amid escalating violence in Gaza and concerns over US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Spot gold was trading around USD 3040. The yellow metal, which has risen over 15% this year, is supported by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties.

US stocks decline ahead of Fed decision

US stock markets declined on Tuesday ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision due on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% to 41,581.31 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.1% and 1.7% respectively. Strong import and export prices in February reinforced persistent inflation concerns, dampening hopes for imminent rate cuts. Fed officials are expected to keep interest rates steady at their meeting on Wednesday, while potentially adjusting their economic outlook and future rate projections. Chair Jerome Powell and colleagues have advocated a patient approach amid uncertainties from President Trump's trade and fiscal policies.

Asian stocks mixed as BOJ holds rates steady

Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region were trading mixed on Wednesday with Japanese stocks in focus. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was slightly down 0.1% after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its short-term policy rate at 0.5% on Wednesday, as policymakers assess the impact of potential US tariff increases on Japan's export-driven economy. Despite rising domestic inflation pressures from increasing rice costs, the BOJ noted that the economy is recovering moderately. Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region, Korea’s Kospi gained 0.7% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was 0.4% lower. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was up 0.1% and mainland China’s CSI 300 was trading essentially flat.

Swiss GDP growth forecast lowered

The Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4% from 1.5% previously, as announced on Tuesday. The 2026 forecast was also adjusted down to 1.6% from 1.7%. This outlook reflects continued below-average growth amidst significant global economic uncertainties. SECO highlighted that the service sector and chemical-pharmaceutical industry supported solid GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, while other manufacturing sectors stagnated.

Canadian inflation rises to 2.6%

Canada's annual inflation rate increased to 2.6% in February, driven by the end of a sales tax break, Statistics Canada reported on Tuesday. This marks the first time in seven months that inflation has exceeded the Bank of Canada's 2% target, up from 1.9% in January. Without the tax break, inflation would have reached 3%. The rise in consumer prices, particularly in restaurant food, clothing, and alcohol, has led to increased speculation of a pause in the interest rate cut cycle next month.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Swatch, Talanx, Tencent, and Vonovia.

Economic data in focus: euro-area Consumer Price Index (11:00), Federal Reserve interest rate decision (19:00).

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Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.