LGT Private Banking House View

January 2025 - in a nutshell

We maintain our pro-cyclical stance in the run-up to 2025 and leave our tactical positioning unchanged. Our economic forecast remains steady, but the incoming Trump administration introduces an element of uncertainty. We favour US equities for earnings growth and see catch-up potential in Europe, while we expect the short end of the US yield curve to fall, and faster ECB rate cuts to steepen Europe's curve.

Date
Auteur
Gérald Moser, CIO & Head Investment Services Europe
Temps de lecture
7 minutes

LGT Private Banking House View Januar 2025
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Macroeconomic environment

Our macroeconomic outlook has remained unchanged, following the sharp adjustments we made in November in light of the US election results. These reflected our assessment of the impact of "Trumponomics 2.0": higher interest rates, inflation, and initially more robust growth in the US. We are maintaining this forecast framework for the time being, as neither the macroeconomic data landscape has provided any new impulses nor has the expected effect of Trump’s policies on the economic environment become any clearer.

Investment strategy

The LGT Private Banking Europe Investment Committee has decided to maintain its pro-cyclical bias and tactical positioning, with an "Overweight" in global equities and an "Underweight" in fixed-income securities. Robust US growth is supported by continued economic momentum and possible stimulus from the new Trump administration, while the eurozone offers scope for further interest rate cuts due to weak growth and disinflation. US equities remain favoured, while euro-area equities show catch-up potential. Emerging market equities and bonds are "Underweighted" due to higher US interest rates and trade tariffs. US interest rates could rise again, which would partially reverse global trends, while European interest rates could remain volatile due to political instability.

Equity strategy

A reflation regime combined with tax cuts and deregulation is expected to drive a broadening earnings growth recovery in the United States. We favour the US based on superior fundamental earnings dynamics. However, due to the high index concentration and selectively elevated valuations, we believe a rotational market opens up new opportunities for 2025. We see improving earnings growth at more appealing valuation metrics in the equal-weighted S&P 500 as well as in US small caps. We also consider Europe "Attractive" based on a combination of moderate earnings growth recovery and re-rating potential. We expect positive spill-over effects from a strong US economy, a currently strong US dollar and a potentially looser German fiscal policy to outweigh the risks of new trade tariffs. In addition, there is potential for self-help in the form of greater scope for interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) than by the US central bank. For emerging markets, "Trumponomics 2.0" is likely to bring greater forecasting uncertainty, coupled with potentially higher volatility. In particular, the nomination of "China hardliners" to the US government, with the prospect of higher punitive tariffs, combined with higher US government bond yields for longer, is expected to weigh on the risk/reward profile of emerging markets. As a result, we rate this region as "Unattractive". Finally, we believe that Japan has passed its "peak goldilocks" moment, with potential currency volatility translating into earnings forecast uncertainty. For the time being, we view Japan as "Unattractive".

Fixed-income strategy

In 2025, we expect the short end of the US yield curve to fall further, driven by Federal Funds rate cuts, while the long end will be under upward pressure due to the strength of the US economy and rising financing needs. In Europe, faster rate cuts by the ECB should lead to a steepening of the yield curve. Despite low-risk premiums, corporate bonds offer opportunities for additional returns, at least in the first half of the year. We remain cautious on emerging market bonds for the time being, as we believe that trade risks from a more activist Trump administration are not sufficiently priced in. 

Currency strategy

Following the re-election of Donald Trump, the US dollar initially enjoyed a burst of short-term strength on hopes of "Trumponomics 2.0" and the continuation of monetary policy divergence. However, this momentum is expected to fade over the mid-term. As fiscal expansion and potential inflationary pressures combine with Fed interest rate cuts, the US dollar faces a challenging environment. Valuation concerns - highlighted by the purchasing power parity target, dual fiscal and current account deficits, and even the possibility of a US credit downgrade - further weigh on the greenback’s outlook. With these factors in mind, we have taken profit on our previous short EUR/USD positions and now favour a long EUR/USD stance, anticipating a modest weakening of the dollar as it approaches our target levels. 

Gold

Gold remains the ultimate refuge in times of political and geopolitical turmoil, and the current environment offers reasons for optimism about its medium-term prospects. Inflationary policies under the Trump administration could further bolster the metal’s appeal, complementing its traditional safe-haven role. Our price target stands at USD 2750. Although gold’s positioning has been robust following this year’s strong performance, any near-term dips may present attractive opportunities to build or increase exposure. In a world of uncertainty, gold’s fundamental appeal remains in our view. 

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