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Lower US inflation could increase Fed's potential to cut rates

Inflation in the US has eased further recently, giving the Federal Reserve (Fed) more room to cut interest rates, which financial markets have already been expecting. Stock markets in Europe and the US continued to rise on Wednesday, following the previous day's gains and higher expectations. The euro area economy is growing more strongly than expected and the rise in French prices boosted the euro. In the Asia-Pacific region, markets are rising after Japan's GDP growth beat expectations.

Date
Auteur
Dominique Stutz, LGT
Temps de lecture
5 minutes

US Consumer Prices
© Shutterstock

On the New York Stock Exchange, the weaker rise in consumer prices was well received after the previous day's producer prices and price gains had raised expectations. After being the slowest to recover, the Dow Jones Industrial regained the upper hand to close above 40,000 for the first time since early August. The benchmark index rose 0.6% to close at 40,008.39. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 5,455.21, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 closed 0.1% higher at 19,022.68 - the fifth consecutive day of gains for both indices.

US inflation continues to ease

The US consumer price index, which measures prices of goods and services on a broad basis, rose by 0.2% in July compared with the previous month and by 2.9% over the year as a whole. In June the inflation rate was 3.0%. The upward trend in prices has thus slowed. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, was 0.2% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year last month, in line with financial market expectations. The annual inflation rate was the lowest since March 2021, while core inflation was the lowest since April 2021. Investors are now increasingly expecting the Fed to begin its interest rate easing cycle on 18 September for the first time since the start of the Covid crisis. With inflationary pressures easing, a larger 50 basis points cut could well be on the cards.

Japan's GDP growth beats expectations, Asia-Pacific markets rise

Asia-Pacific markets were broadly higher on Thursday after Japan's GDP growth beat expectations. Japan's GDP rose 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, compared to a forecast of 0.5%. In China, economic data was mixed. Retail sales rose 2.7% year-on-year, beating expectations, while industrial production fell short of expectations, rising 5.1%. The urban unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.2% from 5% in June. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.8% and the Australian S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.1%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.1% and the Shanghai Composite gained 0.9%. Markets in South Korea and India are closed for a public holiday.

Euro area economy performs better than expected in Q2

The euro area economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter of this year. In the three months to the end of June, euro area GDP increased by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter. Only Germany, the eurozone's largest economy, recorded a decline of 0.1% in the second quarter.

The lower-than-expected rise in US consumer prices initially supported stock markets in Europe. The Dax rose by 0.4%, closing in positive territory for the seventh day in a row. The leading eurozone index, the EuroStoxx 50, gained 0.7% to close at 4,727.60 points. In Switzerland, strong quarterly results from UBS and Straumann added to the positive sentiment. The Swiss Market Index (SMI) closed 1.2% higher at 12,071.83 points, regaining the 12,000-point mark.

Stronger-than-expected French inflation lifts euro

Inflation in France, the eurozone's second largest economy, was higher than initially thought at 2.7% in July. According to the French National Statistics Institute, revised data showed that the HICP inflation rate was 2.7%, slightly higher than the initial figure of 2.6%. This boosted the euro, which by the middle of the week had risen to its highest level against the US dollar since the start of the year.

Rising UK inflation could tie the Bank of England's hands 

UK inflation data was released yesterday for the first time since the Bank of England (BoE) completed its interest rate turnaround last month, cutting the base rate by 25 basis points to 5.0%. Inflation rose to 2.2% in July from 2.0% in the previous month, the highest since April. However, the market had expected an even stronger rise to 2.3%. However, core inflation fell from 3.5% to 3.3% in July. The pound reacted with losses and it remains to be seen whether the Bank of England will be willing to cut interest rates further. The last decision was already controversial in the Monetary Policy Council.

Corporate and macroeconomic calendars

Corporate news in focus: Alibaba, Applied Materials, Geberit, NN Group.

Economic data in focus: Gross domestic product and industrial production in the UK, producer and import prices in Switzerland. From the USA: Retail sales, import prices, initial claims for unemployment insurance, NHAB property market index, industrial production and Philly Fed industrial indicator. 

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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