LGT Private Banking House View

November 2024 - in a nutshell

We maintain our risk-on positioning and confirm our tactical "Overweight" in global equity, with a focus on US equity markets. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the US elections, we reduce the magnitude of the US equity "Overweight". In fixed income, we increase the duration of US dollar sovereign bonds. 

Date
Auteur
Gérald Moser, CIO & Head Investment Services Europe
Temps de lecture
7 minutes

House View November 2024
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Macroeconomic environment

The US economy remains unexpectedly resilient, with robust growth and consumption dynamics despite high interest rates and global headwinds. A virtuous cycle between consumption and employment has sustained economic momentum longer than anticipated, but early signs of cooling in the labour market and weak industrial sentiment suggest a slowdown ahead. Overall, a gradual slowdown in growth is expected for the coming quarters.

Investment strategy

Our risk-on preference remains the optimal positioning in the current environment. Therefore, we confirm our tactical "Overweight" position in global equity, above the strategic weight, with a focus on US equity markets. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US elections, we reduce the magnitude of the US equity "Overweight". At the same time, we confirm the tactical "Underweight" position in emerging market bonds, below the strategic weight, leaving us with an overall "Underweight" in fixed income. Additionally, we increase the duration of US dollar sovereign bonds and confirm the "Underweight" in insurance-linked securities.

Equity strategy

The current environment is characterised by extremely complex and multifaceted dynamics, which are reflected in a visibly higher stock market volatility compared to the first half of the year. It is essential that the leading US market remains on track for a soft landing. The situation is now being supported by the fact that a globally synchronised cycle of interest rate cuts was initiated in September, which should ease the burden on consumers and somewhat reduce the pressure on valuations. This means that the overall investment environment remains fundamentally constructive. If the past serves as a reliable guide, the increased volatility should subside after the US presidential elections. This suggests that the conditions for a year-end rally remain intact, although the tense geopolitical situation poses risks. We maintain an "Overweight" in equities and a regional preference for the US, while we consider the risk/return profile of Japan to be "Unattractive". In terms of sector strategy, we are raising our negative view on the consumer discretionary sector to "Neutral" after a pronounced underperformance of individual industries within that sector, such as the automotive or luxury goods industries. By contrast, we are downgrading the consumer staples sector to "Unattractive" due to deteriorating fundamentals.

Fixed-income strategy

We maintain our "Neutral" allocation to government and corporate bonds and confirm our "Underweight" in emerging markets (hard currency). Given the strong interest rate movements, particularly in the US dollar, which have pushed ten-year government bond yields back above 4%, we are closing our preference for short USD government bonds and returning to a "Neutral" duration allocation, which now applies to USD, EUR and CHF. Except for investment-grade EUR credits, we consider credit markets as a whole to be expensive. However, fundamental credit indicators do not point to an imminent correction, and we therefore remain "Neutral" in this area.

Currency strategy

The USD/JPY exchange rate has become a focal point in global financial markets, largely driven by the contrasting monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Recent developments suggest that a stabilisation of the USD/JPY volatility may be on the horizon, particularly over the next six months. A key factor in this outlook is the evolving landscape of interest rate policies in both the United States and Japan, alongside broader fundamentals, which point to the potential for a gradual decline in USD/JPY, targeting the 145 level.
 

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