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US elections are fast approaching, and nervousness is noticeably increasing

Sentiment on capital markets is getting more tense, as the US elections are now fast approaching. Latest poll results still show a tight head-on-head race between Trump and Harris. On Thursday, the Bank of Japan announces its monetary policy decision, and on the same day, in the eurozone new inflation data is expected. On the corporate earnings side, five of the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks are set to report this week. Alphabet on Tuesday, Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday and Apple and Amazon on Thursday. Besides this, other major earnings are Adidas, Novartis, and Pfizer (Tuesday), UBS and Volkswagen (Wednesday), and Merck & Co (Thursday). The week concludes with the widely watched US labour market statistics, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Friday. 

Date
Auteur
Alessandro Fezzi, LGT Research Content & Publications
Temps de lecture
5 minutes

US Elections 5 November 2024
© Shutterstock

Market volatility is anticipated to intensify in the final full week before the US presidential election on 5 November and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on 7 November. Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris are tied in polls, with Trump gaining momentum. Market sentiment is expected to remain fragile as the election date nears.

Nasdaq reaches new all-time high ahead of more Mag7-earnings releases

At the New York stock exchange, the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.6% to a record 18,518.61 points on Friday, driven by gains in major tech stocks ahead of their earnings reports. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 edged down slightly to 5808.12 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% to 42,114.40 points. Despite the Nasdaq's rise, the S&P 500 and Dow both ended the week lower, snapping their six-week winning streaks. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment in the US unexpectedly brightened in October. The consumer climate index compiled by the University of Michigan rose by 0.4 points to 70.5 points in October. Economists had expected the index to reach 69.0 points. Assessments of the current situation improved in October compared to the previous month. Expectations dimmed somewhat. The University of Michigan's indicator measures the purchasing behaviour of US consumers. It is based on a telephone survey of around 500 households.

Asian stocks kick off the week positively - in Japan, the LDP lost its majority in the lower house for the first time since 2009

Equity markets in the Asian-Pacific region started the week on a positive note, as apprehensions about the Israel-Iran conflict lessened following a milder-than-expected Israeli attack. Japanese stocks led gains, with the Nikkei 225 and Topix indexes rising 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, as political uncertainty from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party losing its parliamentary majority reduced expectations of further Bank of Japan rate hikes. In Sunday’s elections, the LDP lost its majority in Japan’s lower house for the first time since 2009. Besides its junior coalition partner Komeito, the LDP will need to work with other parties to form a government. A minority government could also be on the cards. Broader Asian markets also saw gains, driven by optimism over upcoming US technology earnings and economic data. Korea’s Kospi and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 were up 1% and 0.1%, respectively. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was little changed, and mainland China’s CSI 300 dipped slightly by 0.3%.

German Business Climate Index rises in October

The ifo Business Climate Index for Germany increased to 86.5 points in October from 85.4 points in September, marking the first rise after four consecutive declines. Improved sentiment among companies was driven by better satisfaction with the current situation and slightly brighter expectations, despite ongoing skepticism. In the manufacturing sector, less pessimistic expectations halted the downward trend, although the lack of orders and reduced capacity utilization remain challenges. The service sector saw a return to positive sentiment, particularly in logistics, tourism, and IT, while the trade sector experienced a modest improvement in expectations. However, the construction sector's business climate worsened due to more pessimistic outlooks.

Euro-area consumer inflation expectations fall

Consumer inflation expectations in the eurozone declined in September, with a survey by the European Central Bank (ECB) revealing a 12-month forecast of 2.4%, the lowest since September 2021. This is down from 2.7% in August, contrary to economists' expectations of a decrease to 2.6%. Three-year inflation expectations also fell to 2.1%, the lowest since February 2022. The ECB, which aims for a 2% medium-term inflation target, noted that actual inflation dropped to 1.7% in September, the lowest since April 2021. The ECB is anticipated to further reduce interest rates in December.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from KPN, Philips, Ford Motor, and Welltower.

Economic data in focus: Spanish retail sales (04:00), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (10:30).
 

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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