LGT Navigator

US tariffs ignite global market turmoil

US President Donald Trump's imposition of new tariffs on major trading partners has triggered widespread market anxiety, leading to significant declines in US and Asian stock markets. European markets, however, bucked the trend with gains driven by defense stocks. The nervousness spilled over to other markets as well with bitcoin falling 8.5% on Monday to trade below USD 85,000 again on Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields continued to fall, with the benchmark 10-year yield trading below 4.2%, down from 4.6% in mid-February.

Date
Auteur
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Temps de lecture
5 minutes

Trade war
© Shutterstock

Trump implemented a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada and increased duties on Chinese goods to 20% on Tuesday, initiating new trade conflicts. In response, China announced tariffs of 10%-15% on US agricultural products and export restrictions, while Canada planned immediate 25% tariffs on USD 20.7 billion of US imports. Mexico is expected to announce its response on Tuesday. Businesses warn that these tariffs could lead to economic downturns and disrupted supply chains.

US stocks fall on tariff concerns

US stock markets experienced significant losses on Monday as anxiety about the trade war between the US and other nations took over sentiment. The CBOE Volatility Index, which acts as a gauge of market fear, shot up 16% on Monday to levels last seen in December. The Dow Jones Industrial fell 1.5% to 43,191.24 points, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.8% to 5849.72 points, marking the largest daily decline this year. The Nasdaq 100, dominated by tech stocks, decreased by 2.2% to 20,425.58 points. Nvidia dropped 8.7%.

US manufacturing steady amid tariff concerns

US manufacturing remained stable in February, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI dipping to 50.3 from 50.9 in January. However, the survey highlighted increased prices for inputs and longer delivery times due to volatile tariff policies. Concerns over these tariffs, driven by Trump's trade policies, have created an uncertain environment, potentially impacting production and leading to a contraction in factory employment. The PMI's measure of new orders also slumped, reflecting broader economic challenges.

Asian stocks in the red

Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region were trading lower on Tuesday, following Wall Street's decline. Japan’s Nikkei 225 led losses, trading 1.4% lower, after Trump warned Japan and China to stop devaluing their currencies. Japanese unemployment also came in slightly higher than the market had expected, at 2.5% in January. Meanwhile, Korea’s Kospi was essentially flat, despite the country’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) falling into contractionary territory at 49.9 in February from 50.3 in January. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.6%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.3%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 was down 0.1%.

European markets rise as defense stocks surge

European markets closed higher on Monday, driven by a significant increase in defense stocks following regional security talks. The Euro Stoxx 50 index rose by 1.3%, with the European aerospace and defense sectors seeing strong gains. Germany's Hensoldt and Italy's Leonardo were among the top performers in these sectors, gaining 22.3% and 16% respectively. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced plans to detail the "rearm Europe" initiative, aimed at bolstering military spending, to member states on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX gained 2.6% and France’s CAC 40 was up 1.1% on Monday. Switzerland’s SMI gained 1.4%.

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rises in February

The euro area manufacturing PMI rose to 47.6 in February, its highest level in two years, from 46.6 in January. This improvement signals the least severe contraction in the euro area’s manufacturing sector since early 2023. The increase was supported by the bloc’s largest economy, Germany, where Manufacturing PMI rose to 46.5 in February, up from a flash estimate of 46.1, marking a 25-month high.

Euro-area inflation declines in February

Euro area annual inflation is estimated to be 2.4% in February 2025, down from 2.5% in January, according to Eurostat's flash estimate released on Monday. Services are expected to have the highest annual rate at 3.7%, a slight decrease from 3.9% in January. Inflation is approaching the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target. The ECB makes its next policy announcement on Thursday.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Continental, Kühne + Nagel, Lindt & Sprüngli, and VAT.

Economic data in focus: euro-area unemployment rate (11:00).

LGT helps you make informed investment decisions

Global economic and market trends at a glance

You can also follow us on Facebook or LinkedIn – or visit Insights and discover interesting background articles. If you have questions, a consultant from the bank will be happy to help you.

Imprint
Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

Prendre contact