The Strategist

An unremarkable Q3 reporting season

The third quarter earnings season is winding down. Here's a summary of the key takeaways.

Date
Author
Georg Ruzicka, Head Equity Research LGT Private Banking
Reading time
10 minutes

Q3
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Overall, a positive earnings season in the US

More than 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported their third-quarter 2024 results. Revenue growth was up 5.5% year over year, almost 1.2 percentage points higher than expected. Overall, around 60% of companies managed to surprise positively with their revenue growth, which is moderately below the ten-year average of 64%. Companies that generate the majority of their sales in the US were able to achieve sales growth of 5.2%, while those with the majority of their sales outside the US recorded an increase of 6.1%. For the S&P 500 as a whole, the breakdown of sales is 59% domestic and 41% international.

Third quarter earnings per share were up 5.3% year-on-year. This compares with an expectation of 4.3% at the end of September, the start of the reporting season. Overall, around 75% of companies managed to surprise positively with their earnings growth, which is exactly in line with the average of the last ten years. Companies that generate the majority of their sales in the US managed to achieve earnings growth of 1.4%, while those with the majority of their sales outside the US recorded an increase of 12.8%. The price reactions in both directions - i.e. for both positive and negative surprises - were stronger than the historical average. The net profit margin was 12.1% overall, compared with 12.2% in the previous year and in the previous quarter, but well above the five-year average of 11.5%.

Moderate stabilisation in Europe

In Europe, too, around 74% of companies in the Stoxx Europe 600 have now disclosed their results. In terms of sales growth, European companies delivered exactly as expected, with positive and negative surprises virtually canceling each other out. In terms of earnings growth, European companies managed to exceed expectations by just over 3%, meaning that in net terms slightly more companies surprised positively than disappointed. Market reactions became harsher as the reporting season progressed. While positive surprises were rewarded with an average price increase of +1.5%, misses were punished with an average price decrease of -2.2%. However, this may also have been distorted by larger price swings in the wake of the US elections. Earnings revisions for the European market remain moderately negative, but appear to be stabilising. 

A comparison of expectations in Europe and the US

For the current full-year 2024, expectations for earnings growth in Europe were lowered to just 1.9%, compared to 3.8% three months ago. Revisions also pointed downwards in the US, although expectations for earnings growth in the current year were only marginally lowered from 10.5% to 9.4% within three months. A look ahead to 2025 shows a persistent discrepancy between the two markets. Earnings growth expectations for the Stoxx Europe 600 have been reduced from 10.7% to 9.3%. Those for the S&P 500 are practically unchanged at 14.8%, as they were three months ago. 

Key findings

A rather unspectacular third quarter earnings season is drawing to a close. As a result, expectations for both the current and the coming year in Europe have been reduced more sharply, while those for the US remain visibly more optimistic. This seems to be consistent with the divergences in economic growth between the two economic areas. Overall, the US elections have attracted far more attention than the earnings season. Until the end of the year, macro data, monetary policy and politically relevant announcements are likely to take center stage again. 

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