Market view How we see the markets

China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged on Wednesday, allowing time to assess the impacts of recent rate cuts aimed at boosting economic activity. Asian equity markets showed mixed responses on Wednesday. On Tuesday, US equities rebounded from early losses driven by geopolitical...

Swiss industrial production increased in the third quarter, continuing to show a positive trend even as the manufacturing sectors in neighbouring countries have struggled recently. The data wasn’t enough to move Swiss stocks much and other European markets saw minimal changes as well on Monday.

This week, market participants are shifting their attention from post-election topics to key inflation data and central bank decisions. On Wednesday, the UK releases its Consumer Price Index. The Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision on Tuesday, followed by the People's Bank of...

US markets declined on Thursday following remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who indicated no urgency to lower interest rates. Powell attributed October's weak jobs report to temporary factors and maintained a cautious stance on rate cuts. The major US stock indices fell on...

US consumer prices rose in October, pushing the annual inflation rate up and challenging the Federal Reserve's (Fed) attempts to return to its target inflation figure. US stocks closed with little movement on Wednesday, while European markets ended Wednesday slightly lower. Asian markets traded...

US stock markets retreated on Tuesday as investors took profits following the rally driven by Donald Trump's election victory. This pullback in Wall Street's momentum extended to Asia-Pacific markets, which traded mostly lower on Wednesday. European equities also saw significant declines amid...

Despite a lack of macroeconomic data to provide impulses for the market early in the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new record high close on Monday. Market sentiment was driven by President-elect Donald Trump's victory and the Republican Party's projected control of both...

US stocks had their strongest week of the year, driven by Donald Trump's election victory, which boosted market optimism. Bitcoin, which was supported by Trump during his 2024 campaign, surged above USD 81,000 over the weekend, reaching record highs. Meanwhile, Asian markets started the week...

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points on Thursday, as central banks in the UK and Sweden also reduced rates to address economic challenges. US equities closed higher on Thursday, led by gains in the technology sector and supported by falling Treasuries yields.

US stocks surged mid-week with the major US indices hitting all-time highs as it appeared likely that the Republican party would win not only the White House, but also a majority in the Senate and House of Representatives. Small-cap stocks and banks were among the major winners. The euphoria...

We maintain our risk-on positioning and confirm our tactical "Overweight" in global equity, with a focus on US equity markets. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the US elections, we reduce the magnitude of the US equity "Overweight". In fixed income, we increase the duration of US...

The US economy remains stable with solid consumption, and the Federal Reserve has begun a rate-cutting cycle to support growth. While we maintain our US equities "Overweight", we introduce an "Underweight" in Japanese equities. Fixed income stays "Underweight", but we see value in government...

The sharp rise in equity volatility at the beginning of August proved to be a correction. We shift US equities to "Overweight", while fixed income remains “Underweight“, and we are taking profits in gold. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in September, easing market headwinds and...

With the overall picture remaining constructive, we maintain our "Overweight" in equities and "Underweight" in fixed income. Fundamentally, stronger electricity demand growth, low valuations and the prospect of an interest rate turnaround offer attractive entry points in the utilities sector...

The solid but slowing growth environment should continue for the time being, albeit with regional differences, and the risk of recession seems to have been pushed further out. The equity market offers a more attractive risk/reward profile than the credit market, with the US stock market in...

In our investment strategy, we highlight tail risks, which are distruptive events for financial markets, but also create investment opportunities and are closing the tactical "Underweight" position in US equities, as the US market remains in a difficult tug-of-war between economic momentum and...

Geopolitical tensions, robust US growth, rising oil prices and stubborn inflation are pushing equity and bond markets into negative territory for 2024. We are temporarily downgrading US equities to "Underweight" and reducing our preference for ILS investments to "Underweight".

The current economic and financial market environment is highly uncertain, with ge­opolitics, central banks and elections all making the next few months difficult to navigate. In this House View’s main article, we take a break from the day-to-day market environment and instead focus on our...

In this month's House View, we review some of our "Outlook 2024" forecasts and take a look at the latest developments in the financial markets. In our Macro article, we discuss the challenges faced by the manufacturing sector in recent years, highlight the factors behind this development and...

Major asset classes have started the new year on diverging paths without pricing in a uniform macroeconomic environment for 2024. To hedge against the risk of a hard landing, we would prefer government bonds with longer maturities. Overall, we consider the opportunities and risks to be balanced...

The third quarter earnings season is winding down. Here's a summary of the key takeaways.

In a week, the citizens of the USA will once again decide who will lead the country for the next four years. After President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal as the Democratic candidate in July, Kamala Harris brought new momentum to the race for the White House. With her, a woman could hold...

Polls on the US election continue to show a close race. What consequences would a Trump or Harris victory have for the global economy? Donald Trump's proposed tariff policy aims to strengthen American manufacturing by imposing high import tariffs, particularly on Chinese goods, which could...

In the second half of 2024, key economic trends emerged, shaping the global economic outlook. Disinflation returned on both sides of the Atlantic, the US labour market cooled further with slower job creation and falling wage inflation, and central banks began gradually easing their previously...

The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, with Iran launching another rocket attack on Israel followed by Israel's promise of retaliation against Iran, is reflected in increased nervousness in the oil price and in the volatility of energy stocks. The price of Brent crude oil rose by...

French bonds are once again in the spotlight and, for the first time since 2007, are perceived by the market as riskier than Spanish government bonds - despite Spain having a credit rating three notches lower. Simultaneously, the interest rate spread over German bonds has widened from around 50...

On September 24, People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng announced an extensive monetary easing package, including rate cuts, RRR reductions, and mortgage policy relaxations, surpassing market expectations. Immediate market reactions saw a surge in stock markets, bond rallies, and...

As the world's most competitive economy to date, the European Union has a problem: its main competitors, China and the US, no longer want to play the game. In his report "The future of European competitiveness", Mario Draghi, a grandee of EU politics who, as former head of the European Central...

September often brings increased volatility to equity markets, and this year is no different with several significant events poised to influence capital markets. Critical labour market data in the US and the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the US Federal Reserve...

At the Kansas City Fed’s symposium in Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signalled potential US interest rate cuts, citing a cooling labour market and easing inflation. Powell’s remarks highlight a shift towards a more flexible, "data-dependent" policy approach. With the Fed’s...