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Cautious start to the new week - waiting for US inflation data

Investors were cautious at the start of the new week. Amid ongoing uncertainty about the further development of the US economy and the corresponding monetary policy response from the US Federal Reserve, markets are looking ahead to the latest inflation data from the United States due today and tomorrow.

Date
Author
Alessandro Fezzi, LGT Research Content & Publications
Reading time
5 minutes

Investor
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In New York, the stock indices were unable to build on the recovery of the previous days and the Dow Jones Industrial closed Monday's trading session down just under 0.4% at 39,357.01 points. The S&P 500 remained completely unchanged at 5,344.39 points and the indices on the Nasdaq technology exchange rose only slightly by around 0.2%, supported by price gains at Nvidia, which gained 4% yesterday. On the bond market, the yield on ten-year Treasuries was slightly lower at 3.91%.

US producer prices - indicator for consumer price trends

Inflationary pressure from producers is likely to have eased somewhat in July. A majority of analysts expect this to be the case. The producer price index due this afternoon at 14:30 (CET) is therefore expected to have risen by 0.1% compared to the previous month. In June, the increase was still 0.2%. Producer prices run ahead of consumer prices (due tomorrow) and therefore provide an indication of the further development of inflation. If inflationary pressure eases faster than expected, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could also have more room for manoeuvre to cut key interest rates more sharply in September. Markets are currently expecting an easing of at least 25 basis points.

Japan's stock market rises after public holiday

The majority of stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region trended sideways. The exception is Japan, where the stock exchanges were closed at the beginning of the week due to a public holiday and had to "catch up" today. The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo gained 2.5% today and broke through the 36,000 point mark for the first time since 2 August. The broad-based Topix rose by just under 2%. The momentum was largely driven by the technology and financial sectors. In South Korea, the Kospi fell by just under 0.2% and the small-cap Kosdaq lost 1.6%. The Australian S&P/ASX 200 climbed by 0.1%. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose by 0.1%, while the CSI 300 in mainland China fell by 0.2%. In Singapore, gross domestic product expanded by 2.9% year-on-year in the second quarter. The Ministry of Trade and Industry pointed to the strength of the wholesale trade, finance and insurance industries as well as the information and communications sector. The city state now expects GDP growth of 2-3% in 2024, compared to the previous forecast of 1-3%.

Don't lose sight of geopolitical tensions

In view of the expected Iranian counterattack on Israel, the USA has increased its military presence in the Middle East. In addition to the aircraft carrier group "USS Theodore Roosevelt", which is already operating in the region, the aircraft carrier "USS Abraham Lincoln" and its escort are now also being moved. US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin has emphasised that the USA will take every possible measure to defend Israel in view of the escalating regional tensions. As a result, oil prices rose temporarily on Monday. US West Texas Intermediate (September delivery) is currently trading at around USD 79.60 per barrel and North Sea Brent crude at around USD 81.75 per barrel (October delivery).

Corporate and macroeconomic calendars

Corporate news in focus: Porsche SE, Henkel and Home Depot.

Economic data in focus: UK labour market report, ZEW survey Germany and producer prices USA. 
 

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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