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China trade data disappoints, markets react to policy shift

China’s imports fell sharply in November, sparking concerns about the nation’s economic outlook. Nevertheless, Asian markets found support as Beijing announced plans to loosen its monetary policy in 2025 to stimulate growth. US stocks retreated after a record week with Nvidia hit by a new probe in China, while European investor confidence hit a 13-month low.

Date
Author
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Reading time
5 minutes

China port
© Shutterstock

China’s imports fell by 3.9% in November, marking the steepest decline since September 2023. The unexpected drop contrasts with market expectations for a 0.3% increase. Meanwhile, exports grew by 6.7% year-on-year, significantly lower than the 12.7% rise in the previous month, missing the forecasted 8.5% growth. The data raises concerns about the health of China's economy amid sluggish consumer demand and looming tariff threats.

Asian stocks supported by China’s policy shift

Meanwhile, China announced plans to implement an "appropriately loose" monetary policy in 2025, marking its first easing in 14 years, alongside a more proactive fiscal policy to stimulate economic growth. The Politburo's decision aims to expand domestic demand and boost consumption. Markets in the Asia-Pacific region responded positively to the comments. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.5% on Tuesday, and mainland China’s CSI 300 rose 1.1%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 0.6% higher, and Korea’s Kospi surged 2.3%. However, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.4% after the country’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.35%.

US stocks retreat after record week

US stock indices fell slightly on Monday following a strong performance last week. The Dow Jones Industrial decreased by 0.6% to 44,401.93 points, the Nasdaq 100 dropped by 0.8% to 21,440.82 points, and the S&P 500 declined by 0.6% to 6,052.85 points. Nvidia shares dropped 2.6% as China's State Administration for Market Regulation launched an investigation into the chipmaker for potential antimonopoly law violations related to its acquisition of Mellanox. This development comes amid escalating US-China tensions over semiconductor capabilities, with the US recently imposing further restrictions on advanced AI chip sales to China. Nvidia’s stock has surged about 180% this year.

Euro-area investor confidence hits 13-month low

Euro-area investor confidence fell to a 13-month low in December, according to Sentix survey results released on Monday. The index dropped to -17.5 from -12.8 in November, driven by the weak German economy and political instability in France. The current situation index plunged to -28.5, the lowest since November 2022, while the expectations index declined to -5.8. The survey suggests growing recession concerns and anticipates strong support from the European Central Bank despite ongoing inflation threats.

European stock indices showed mixed results on Monday. The Euro Stoxx 50 edged up 0.2%, while Germany’s DAX slipped 0.2%. France’s CAC 40 outperformed, rising 0.7%, and the Swiss Market Index dipped 0.2%.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Annual general meetings at Microsoft and Palo Alto Networks.

Economic data in focus: German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (08:00), U.S. nonfarm labour productivity (14:30).

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Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
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