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Chinese manufacturing rebound and ECB in focus

China’s factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in three months, according to the latest private-sector purchasing managers’ survey, but this did not prevent Chinese stocks from declining on Monday. Other stocks in the Asia-Pacific region started the week mixed amid tariff concerns. US stocks – particularly in the tech sector – rebounded to finish last week after suffering sharp losses. Likewise, bitcoin bounced back over the weekend after Trump made an announcement about a national strategic cryptocurrency reserve. This week, the European Central Bank’s monetary policy announcement on Thursday will be in focus.

Date
Author
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Reading time
5 minutes

Strategist China
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China's factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in three months, according to the private-sector purchasing managers’ survey released on Monday. The Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reached 50.8 in February, exceeding market expectations and improving from 50.1 in January. The official PMI, reported on Saturday, also showed a rise to 50.2 in February from 49.1 in January. Despite the positive survey data, Chinese stocks were under pressure to start the week. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.3%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 dropped 0.4%. Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 1.8% higher, while Korea’s Kospi fell 3.4%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.9%. 

ECB and inflation data dominate the week

This week, markets are closely watching the European Central Bank, which holds its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, for any signs about the pace and extent of future interest rate cuts given signs of weakness in the eurozone economy. Inflation updates are also in focus, with the euro area releasing its Consumer Price Index on Monday and Switzerland on Wednesday. In the US, the ISM Manufacturing Index on Monday is an important indicator of economic health for the world’s largest economy, while the ADP Employment Report on Wednesday and non-farm payrolls report on Friday are critical data points for assessing the labour market.

Nasdaq rebounds after sharp decline

US stock markets showed recovery during last week’s final trading session, following significant losses the previous day, particularly in the technology sector. The Nasdaq 100 rose by 1.6% to 20,884.41 points, halting its recent sharp decline. The Dow Jones Industrial increased by 1.4% to 43,840.91 points, while the S&P 500 gained 1.6% to 5,954.50 points. Nvidia shares rebounded by nearly 4% after a steep drop.

US consumer spending declines in January

US consumer spending fell by 0.2% in January, marking its first decline since March 2023, according to Commerce Department data released on Friday. The goods trade deficit surged to a record USD 153.3 billion, driven by businesses front-loading imports to avoid tariffs. Core PCE inflation rose 0.3% in January, maintaining a 2.6% year-on-year increase.

German inflation steady, employment down slightly

Germany's annual inflation rate reached 2.3% in February 2025, unchanged from January, according to provisional data released on Friday. The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% from January 2025, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, is expected to be 2.6%. Meanwhile, employment in Germany decreased by 0.1% in January 2025 compared to the same month last year, with roughly 45.6 million people employed. Germany’s DAX finished Friday’s session essentially flat, while the Euro Stoxx 50 lost 0.1%.

Swiss KOF Economic Barometer declines in February

The KOF Economic Barometer for Switzerland decreased by 1.3 points to 101.7 in February from a revised 103.0 in January. Despite this decline, the barometer remains above the long-term average. Most sectors, except construction, experienced pressure, particularly manufacturing. However, indicators for foreign and consumer demand provided some support. The outlook for order volumes, competitive conditions, and exports showed improvement, while sectors such as paper, chemicals, and automotive faced challenges. The Swiss Market Index gained 0.4% on Friday.

Trump boosts bitcoin with reserve announcement

Bitcoin surged over 20% from last week's lows on Monday after US President Donald Trump revealed that his January executive order would include cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ether in a new US strategic reserve. Bitcoin reached around USD 93,000, up from Friday's roughly USD 78,000, while ether rose nearly 10% to USD 2425 Monday morning. Trump is hosting a White House Crypto Summit on Friday.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: Italian Manufacturing PMI (09:45), French Manufacturing PMI (09:50), German Manufacturing PMI (09:55), euro-area Manufacturing PMI (10:00), euro-area Consumer Price Index (11:00), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (16:00).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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