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Fed's inflation worries unsettle markets

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) December meeting revealed officials' growing concerns about inflation and the potential effects of President-elect Donald Trump's policies, prompting caution in their approach to rate cuts. This uncertainty - already present among market participants this week - triggered a selloff in major government bonds, driving US Treasury yields to their highest levels since April. Asian equity markets also declined on Thursday amid fears of delayed monetary policy easing. In contrast, US stocks posted modest gains despite inflation and tariff anxieties, supported by jobless claims hitting an 11-month low, which suggested a resilient labour market.

Date
Author
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Reading time
5 minutes

Fed interest rate pause
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Fed officials expressed concerns during their December meeting about inflation and the potential impact of Trump's policies on their efforts to control it, according to minutes released on Wednesday. Policymakers indicated they would slow down interest rate cuts due to the uncertainty surrounding changes in immigration and trade policies. The Fed reduced its benchmark rate to 4.25%-4.5% last month and revised its 2025 rate cut outlook from four to two, citing the need for a cautious approach amid high inflation and strong economic activity.

Inflation concerns set off bond market turmoil

Concerns about rising inflation and fiscal policy uncertainty under Trump also set off a significant selloff in major government bond markets this week, causing 10-year US Treasury yields to reach their highest level since April on Wednesday, while UK 10-year gilt yields hit their highest since 2008. Additionally, Germany's 10-year Bund yield rose to a five-month high amid increased bond supply and accelerating eurozone inflation.

Asia equities decline amid Fed concerns

Asian stock markets fell on Thursday as investor concerns grew that the Fed might delay policy easing due to inflation risks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 0.9% lower, while Korea’s Kospi edged up 0.1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 0.2% and mainland China’s CSI 300 was little changed after data released Thursday showed China's consumer price inflation decelerated to 0.1% year on year in December, down from 0.2% in November. The decline was in line with market expectations. Producer price inflation fell by 2.3% year on year, marking the 27th consecutive month of decline. Despite various stimulus measures, weak domestic demand continues to challenge China's economic recovery.

US markets close with slight gains

US stock indices closed with modest gains on Wednesday amid concerns over Trump's tariff policies. The Dow Jones Industrial rose by 0.3% to 42,635.20 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.2% to 5918.25 points, and the Nasdaq 100 edged up by 0.1% to 21,180.97 points. Investor sentiment was dampened by reports that Trump may declare a national economic emergency to justify new tariffs, fuelling inflation and interest rate concerns. In tech stocks, Nvidia shares remained flat, and Meta fell by 1.2%, while Apple and Microsoft saw slight increases.

US jobless claims reach 11-month low

US weekly jobless claims fell to 201,000 last week, the lowest level since February 2024, according to data released on Wednesday. This decline of 10,000 claims indicates a stable labour market. The robust labour market data set off speculation among market participants that the Federal Reserve could maintain interest rates at their current levels during its next policy meeting in late January. However, the ADP National Employment Report suggested a more modest labour market, with jobs rising by 122,000 in December compared to 146,000 in November. Non-farm payroll data, due Friday, will provide a better picture of the state of the US labour market.

EU economic sentiment declines in December

Economic sentiment in the EU and the eurozone fell in December 2024, with the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) decreasing by 1.7 points to 94.5 in the EU and by 1.9 points to 93.7 in the euro area. The Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) also dropped, declining by 1 point to 98.4 in the EU and by 1.4 points to 97.3 in the eurozone. The declines were driven by reduced confidence in industry, construction, and among consumers, despite a slight increase in services confidence. Major EU economies such as France, Germany, and Italy saw notable declines in sentiment, while Spain experienced an improvement.

European stock indices were mostly lower on Wednesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.3%, while Germany’s DAX slipped 0.1%. France’s CAC 40 declined 0.5%, but the Swiss Market Index bucked the trend, rising 0.3%.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: German trade balance (08:00), Swiss foreign currency reserves (09:00), euro-area retail sales (11:00).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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