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Mild German inflation supports markets

German inflation came in below market expectations on Thursday, supporting equity markets, as investors saw in the data another justification for further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB). European stocks closed higher, while Asian stocks were mixed on the last trading day of the week. US markets were closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and trading is limited on Friday. Meanwhile, the French government’s borrowing costs matched Greece’s for the first time as the country struggles to produce a budget for next year.

Date
Author
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Reading time
5 minutes

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Germany's annual inflation rose to 2.2% in November, falling short of expectations and indicating ongoing disinflation. The Federal Statistical Office reported on Thursday that the consumer price index (CPI) increased from 2.0% in October, while monthly inflation saw its sharpest decline in a year at -0.2%. However, core inflation, excluding food and energy, reached 3.0%, the highest since May, but the slower-than-expected inflation rate supports arguments for further rate cuts by the ECB. German Bund yields dropped after the data release and Germany’s DAX led European equity gains, closing 0.9% higher on Thursday. The Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.6%.

French bond yields match Greece amid political turmoil

French borrowing costs reached parity with Greece's for the first time on Thursday, reflecting investor concerns over France's political instability. The yield on France's ten-year government bonds was briefly above 3%, closely matching Greece's yield for the same type of bond. The development comes as Prime Minister Michel Barnier's government struggles to secure support for a 2025 budget aimed at reducing the deficit through tax hikes and spending cuts. The political uncertainty has raised fears of a no-confidence vote, potentially exacerbating France's economic challenges. France’s CAC 40 was up 0.5% on Thursday.

EU economic sentiment stable

The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for November remained stable in both the EU and the euro area, registering slight increases to 96.5 and 95.8 points, respectively. In contrast, the Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) saw a slight decline, with the EU dropping to 99.6 points and the euro area to 98.9 points. Higher confidence in industry and retail trade was offset by lower confidence in services and among consumers, while construction sentiment saw marginal improvement.

Tokyo core inflation accelerates

Core consumer inflation in Tokyo rose to 2.2% year-on-year in November, surpassing the 2.1% forecast and the 1.8% increase in October. The inflation rate, which excludes fresh food costs, was above the Bank of Japan's 2% target and suggests consumer spending remains strong, which fuelled expectations for a possible interest rate hike in December. The yen appreciated to its highest level in five weeks against the US dollar as traders bet on a rate increase.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 0.5% lower on Friday, while Korea’s Kospi plunged 2%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was slightly down by 0.1%. Chinese stocks bucked the trend in the region. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was up marginally by 0.1%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 surged 1.3%.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: German retail sales (08:00), Swiss gross domestic product (09:00), German unemployment rate (09:55), euro-area Consumer Price Index (11:00), Canadian gross domestic product (14:30).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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