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No surprise in German election calms markets

Germany’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, won Sunday’s parliamentary elections, securing a lead as predicted by polls. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved a historic second place with roughly 20% of the vote, but Merz ruled out any alliance with the far-right party, making a coalition with between the CDU and left parties likely. That combination would likely result in policies similar to those seen in Germany in recent decades, which provided investors with a sense of predictability on Monday morning. The euro shot up versus the dollar and European equity markets were set for a strong open to start the week. Meanwhile, Asian markets were under pressure on Monday, dragged down by Friday’s losses on Wall Street, where concerns about inflation and tariffs dominated market sentiment.

Date
Author
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Reading time
5 minutes

Parliament building Germany
© Shutterstock

This week, global markets will focus on central bank interest rate decisions and inflation data from key economies. On Tuesday, the Bank of Korea announces its interest rate decision, while the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, is released on Friday. The euro area’s Consumer Price Index (CPI, due Monday) and Germany’s harmonised CPI (Friday) will provide further insights into inflation trends. In addition to inflation data, the US gross domestic product figures for the fourth quarter are set for release on Thursday, alongside durable goods orders. On the corporate side, investors will closely dissect Nvidia’s earnings report, due on Wednesday.

US stocks decline amid inflation concerns

US stock markets experienced significant declines on Friday due to ongoing economic and inflation concerns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.7% to 43,428.02 points, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.1% to 21,614.08 points, and the S&P 500 decreased by 1.7% to 6013.13 points. All three indices posted notable weekly losses, with the Dow down 2.5%, the S&P 500 down 1.7%, and the Nasdaq 100 down 2.3%. Investor sentiment was dampened by mixed Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data and a weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan.

Inflation, tariffs dominate US macroeconomic data releases

US Composite Flash PMI fell to 50.4 from 52.7 in January, marking a 17-month low, according to data released Friday. The slowdown was driven by a contraction in the service sector, which saw activity decline for the first time in over two years, largely due to uncertainty and disruption from recent government policies and tariffs. In contrast, the manufacturing sector experienced accelerated growth, although this was partly attributed to pre-emptive sales ahead of expected tariff impacts. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment in the US dropped in February, with the University of Michigan's survey showing a nearly 10% decline from January to 64.7, driven by rising inflation expectations amid tariff uncertainties.

Asia-Pacific markets decline amid US inflation concerns

Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell on Monday following Wall Street's worst session of the year last Friday, driven by concerns over sticky US inflation and slower economic growth. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 1% lower, while Korea’s Kospi fell 0.4%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was slightly higher, gaining 0.1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.4% and mainland China’s CSI 300 dropped 0.3%.

Euro-area business activity stagnates in February

Euro-area business activity showed minimal growth in February, with the Composite PMI remaining at 50.2, the same as January, indicating essentially stagnant conditions. A value above 50 signals growth. German business activity improved slightly, driven by services, while French activity declined significantly due to falling demand. Overall, euro-area demand decreased for the ninth consecutive month, and the services PMI fell to 50.7 from 51.3, while the manufacturing PMI rose to 47.3 from 46.6. European stock indices were mixed on Friday. The Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.3%, while France’s CAC 40 rose 0.4%. Germany’s DAX saw a minor decline of 0.1%, and the Swiss Market Index increased by 1.1%.

UK retail sales surge in January

British retail sales volumes increased by 1.7% month-on-month in January, marking the first rise since August and surpassing economists' expectations of a 0.3% increase, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics on Friday. The stronger-than-expected sales, driven by food purchases, boosted sterling against the US dollar. However, analysts warned that the retail sector's growth might come at the expense of other economic areas and could be short-lived due to overall consumer pessimism.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Belimo.

Economic data in focus: Swiss employment figures (08:30), German ifo Business Climate Index (10:00), euro-area Consumer Price Index (11:00), Bundesbank monthly report (12:00).

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Global economic and market trends at a glance

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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