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Stocks rebound on US inflation below expectations

US stock markets rebounded on Friday after the latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index showed inflation rising less than anticipated. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 all posted gains, driven by the encouraging inflation data, which provided some relief to investors following recent Federal Reserve interest rate signals. Asian equity markets also opened the week higher, buoyed by the positive US inflation figures and merger talks between Honda and Nissan.

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Author
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
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5 minutes

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The US PCE price index increased by 0.1% in November, according to data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE price index also rose by 0.1%. On a year-on-year basis, the PCE price index climbed by 2.4%, while the core PCE price index increased by 2.8%.

The market found some relief in the figures, which showed the Fed's preferred inflation gauge was slightly below economists' expectations. US stock markets used the data as in impulse for recovery on Friday, overcoming initial jitters from the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate signals. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.2% to 42,840.26 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gained 1.1% and 0.9% to finish at 5930.85 and 21,289.15 points, respectively.

US consumer sentiment improves in December

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index reached 74 points in December, marking its highest level since April 2024 and rising for the fifth consecutive month, according to data released on Friday. Despite the improvement, consumers remain concerned about potential price increases in 2025. Inflation expectations for the upcoming year rose to 2.8% from 2.6% in November, while longer-term expectations decreased slightly to 3% from 3.2% last month.

Japanese stocks rise on Honda-Nissan merger talks

Japanese stocks climbed on Monday, driven by reports that automakers Honda and Nissan aim to finalise a merger by June 2025. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 1.2% higher. Honda shares rose, while Nissan shares slipped slightly, following the news of potential merger discussions.

The broader Asian market also saw gains, bolstered by lower-than-expected US inflation data released on Friday. Korea’s Kospi rose 1.6%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up 1.7%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index increased by 0.7%. Mainland China’s CSI 300 was also in positive territory, up 0.4%.

German producer prices rise slightly in November

German producer prices for industrial products increased by 0.1% in November 2024 compared to the same month last year, marking the first annual rise since June 2023. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported on Friday that prices were up 0.5% from October 2024. Excluding energy, producer prices rose by 1.3% year-on-year but fell by 0.1% month-on-month. Higher costs for capital goods and consumer goods drove the annual increase, while energy prices declined by 2.4% from November 2023 but rose by 1.8% from October 2024.

European stock indices ended the week lower on Friday. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.4%, Germany’s DAX declined 0.4% to 19,884.75 points, and France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.3%. The Swiss Market Index decreased by 0.3%, reflecting a cautious sentiment across the region.

UK retail sales underperform before Christmas

UK retail sales volume increased by only 0.2% in November, falling short of analysts' expectations for a 0.5% rise, according to data released on Friday. This modest growth follows a 0.7% decline in October and indicates ongoing consumer caution amid high inflation and elevated interest rates. Despite higher food sales, clothing stores faced difficult trading conditions. Meanwhile, the Labour government saw a significant drop in public borrowing to GBP 11.2 billion in November, the lowest for the month in three years, due to increased tax receipts and lower debt interest.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: UK gross domestic product (08:00), Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (16:00).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
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