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Treasury yields rise amid Fed rate cut uncertainty

US stocks traded lower Tuesday, while investors weighed an ongoing climb in Treasury yields, as uncertainty regarding future Federal Reserve rate cuts has impacted markets this week. The ten-year Treasury yield passed 4.2%. Despite a half-point rate cut by the Fed last month, yields have risen due to both improving economic data and concerns that the Fed may adopt a more cautious approach to further cuts. Meanwhile, earnings season intensifies with about 14% of S&P 500 companies having reported results, and over 70% surpassing earnings estimates.

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Alessandro Fezzi, LGT Research Content & Publications
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5 minutes

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US equities ended Tuesday with mixed results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42.924,89 points, practically flat, while the S&P 500 edged slightly lower to 5851.20 points. In contrast, the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 managed a slight gain, rising 0.2% to 20.383.65 points. Investors remain cautious amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Investors scaled back their interest rate expectations after members of the Federal Reserve hinted that they would prefer a slower rate of interest cuts.

Meanwhile, US ten-Year Treasury yield hit a three-month-high. The benchmark yield rose to 4.24% on Tuesday, its highest level since July, following a 12 basis point increase on Monday. This rise comes as Federal Reserve officials, including Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, advocated for a cautious approach to interest rate cuts. The market now anticipates a single quarter-point cut by the Fed by the end of the year, with an 89% probability of this occurring at the next meeting in early November.

Asian stocks rise despite Wall Street's stall

Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region mostly rose on Wednesday, despite a lackluster performance from Wall Street. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 0.8% lower, while Korea’s Kospi climbed 1.1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 hovered near the flatline, up 0.1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 1.4%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 was slightly up by 0.4%.

European markets show mixed performance on Tuesday

European stock indices displayed mixed performances on Tuesday. The STOXX Europe 600 inched up 0.2%, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 both saw minor declines, dipping 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. Switzerland’s SMI rose by 0.3%, continuing its upward trajectory. Market participants are closely monitoring corporate earnings and economic data releases.

Gold steady, oil prices rebound

Gold prices remained stable, trading around USD 2755 per ounce. In the oil market, Brent crude futures rose to USD 75.70 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures increased to USD 71.15 per barrel. 

Earnings season remains center stage

General Motors reported third-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst estimates, helped by robust revenue growth and improved profitability. 3M, the diversified conglomerate, has raised its adjusted earnings forecast for the second time this year, now expecting USD 7.20 to USD 7.30 per share. In the third quarter, 3M reported a significant profit increase, earning USD 1.37 billion compared to a loss of nearly USD 2.1 billion the previous year, driven by strong earnings per share growth and robust cash flows. Today, electric vehicle maker Tesla will report, while other Wall Street majors including AT&T, IBM, Bank of America, and Coca-Cola are also due on Wednesday.

IMF sees inflation risks rising despite progress

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported on Tuesday that global headline inflation is projected to decrease to 3.5% by the end of 2025, down from 5.8% in 2024. Despite this progress, the IMF highlighted increasing downside risks to global growth, including market volatility and geopolitical tensions. The IMF maintained its global growth forecast at 3.2% for both 2024 and 2025 but noted that lower-income countries could be particularly vulnerable to commodity price spikes. The report also warned of potential economic instability due to factors such as the Middle East conflict and high sovereign debt burdens in emerging markets.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from AT&T, Boeing, Coca-Cola, Deutsche Bank, IBM, NextEra Energy, Tesla, and T-Mobile US.

Economic data in focus: Bank of Canada interest rate decision (15:45), euro-area consumer confidence (16:00), European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks (16:00), US existing home sales (16:00), Federal Reserve Beige Book (20:00).
 

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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