LGT Navigator

US GDP growth slows, tech earnings disappoint

US gross domestic product (GDP) growth decelerated in the third quarter, missing economists' expectations and adding to market jitters ahead of next week’s presidential elections. Meanwhile, tech stocks weighed heavily on US equities as disappointing guidance from Microsoft and Meta Platforms overshadowed solid quarterly results. The Bank of Japan maintained its key interest rates, while China's manufacturing activity showed signs of recovery. Global stocks were under pressure midweek while Treasuries yields rose slightly across the curve.

Date
Author
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Reading time
5 minutes

Meta company sign
© Shutterstock

The US economy expanded at an annualised rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, falling short of the 2.9% anticipated by economists, according to data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Wednesday. This represents a deceleration from the 3% growth recorded in the second quarter. Consumer spending, which represents over two-thirds of US economic activity, grew at a 3.7% pace in the third quarter, up from 2.8% in the second quarter. This marks the fastest rate since the first quarter of 2023. The figures come as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates next week.

US equities closed lower on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% to 42,141.54 points, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.3% to 5813.67 points. Weak chipmakers dragged down the larger indices on the Nasdaq despite solid results from Google parent company Alphabet released after the bell the day before. The Nasdaq-100 saw a decline of 0.8% to finish at 20,387.70 points.

Guidance, AI costs weigh on tech stocks despite solid earnings

While Big Tech firms Microsoft and Meta Platforms both delivered results above estimates after the bell on Wednesday, concerns about the firms’ outlooks weighed on stock prices in after-hour trading. Microsoft reported fiscal first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, with revenue rising 16% to USD 65.59 billion and net income increasing 11% to USD 24.67 billion. Despite surpassing analysts' expectations, the stock fell 3.7% in extended trading due to the lower-than-expected guidance for the current quarter. Meta Platforms, the owner of Facebook, likewise posted earnings on Wednesday that surpassed analysts' expectations with a profit of USD 6.03 per share and revenue of USD 40.59 billion in the third quarter. Despite this, shares fell 3.2% in after-hours trading as the company projected a significant increase in AI infrastructure expenses next year. CEO Mark Zuckerberg emphasised ongoing investments in AI, noting that the Meta AI chatbot now has over 500 million monthly active users.

Bank of Japan maintains rates amidst global risks

The Bank of Japan kept its short-term interest rate steady at 0.25% on Thursday, highlighting the need to monitor global economic conditions closely. The central bank maintained its inflation forecasts, projecting it to hover around the 2% target in the coming years, and reiterated its commitment to raising rates if the domestic economy continues its moderate recovery. Japan's yen remained weak against the US dollar after the announcement while Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 0.6% on Thursday.

China’s manufacturing PMI rises in October

China's manufacturing activity expanded in October for the first time in six months, with the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increasing to 50.1 from 49.8 in September, according to data released on Thursday. The non-manufacturing PMI, which includes construction and services, also improved to 50.2. These figures suggest that recent stimulus measures are beginning to revive the economy, which has been struggling with a property market downturn and weak consumer confidence.

Chinese stocks bucked the trend on Thursday, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index up 0.4% and mainland China’s CSI 300 gaining 0.3%. Other Asian markets were mostly in the red with Korea’s Kospi dropping 1.2%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3%.

Euro-area GDP growth accelerates, aided by Germany

Seasonally adjusted GDP in the euro area grew by 0.4% in the third quarter of 2024, up from 0.2% in the second quarter. Compared to the same quarter last year, GDP rose by 0.9%. The bloc’s economic growth was aided by Germany, whose GDP grew by 0.2% in the third quarter, following a 0.1% decline in the second quarter. Europe’s largest economy unexpectedly dodged a potential recession, despite ongoing challenges such as reduced global demand for exports and higher energy costs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in Germany remained stable at 6% in October, although the total number of unemployed increased by 183,000 compared to the same month last year, according to the Federal Employment Agency. Also on Wednesday, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported that Germany's inflation rate is expected to remain at 2% in October, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is anticipated come in at 2.9%. The STOXX Europe 600 dropped about 1.3%, while Germany’s DAX lost 1.1%.

Swiss economic recovery falters in October

The KOF Economic Barometer for Switzerland decreased by 5 points to 99.5 in October, falling below the 100 mark for the first time since January. This decline, from a revised 104.5 in September, indicates a sluggish economic recovery. The downturn affected indicators across manufacturing, finance, services, hospitality, and construction sectors, though demand-side indicators remained stable. The Swiss Market Index declined by 1.1%, reflecting widespread caution among investors.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from ABB, Amazon, Apple, Bank of America, BBVA, BNP Paribas, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Comcast, ConocoPhillips, Eaton, Geberit, ING Group, Intel, Intesa Sanpaolo, Mastercard, Merck & Co, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Samsung, Shell, STMicroelectronics, Swisscom, and TotalEnergies.

Economic data in focus: German retail sales (07:00), euro-area Consumer Price Index (10:00), euro-area core Consumer Price Index (10:00), euro-area unemployment rate (10:00), US personal consumption expenditures (12:30), US weekly initial jobless claims (12:30), Canadian gross domestic product (12:30), Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (13:45).

LGT helps you make informed investment decisions

Global economic and market trends at a glance

You can also follow us on Facebook or LinkedIn – or visit Insights and discover interesting background articles. If you have questions, a consultant from the bank will be happy to help you.

Imprint
Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

Contact us