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China’s economy exceeds expectations

Economic growth in the world’s second-largest economy was stronger than anticipated in the first quarter of this year. Stock indices in the Asian-Pacific region traded mostly lower today, led by a drop in Hong Kong, following a downturn on Wall Street on Tuesday. Today, investors awaited more corporate earnings amid uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will also be in focus, and the Bank of Canada is expected to announce its monetary policy decision later today.

  • Date
  • Author Alessandro Fezzi, LGT Research Content & Publications
  • Reading time 5 minutes

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China's economy grew by 5.4% in the first quarter, surpassing forecasts of 5.1% growth, maintaining a strong momentum, even as the trade war with the US has escalated. Retail sales in March rose by 5.9% year on year, sharply beating analysts’ estimates for a 4.2% growth. Industrial output expanded by 7.7% from a year earlier, versus median estimates of 5.8%. Despite these positive indicators, concerns remain about the impact of ongoing US tariffs on future growth.

Hong Kong stocks fall despite strong China GDP

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 2.1% on Wednesday, leading regional losses despite China reporting a better-than-expected GDP growth for the first quarter. Mainland China's CSI 300 fell 0.8%, reflecting investor concerns over ongoing US tariff threats. Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's Kospi also declined by 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 saw a minor gain of 0.2%. Asian semiconductor-related stocks fell after Nvidia said that it will take a quarterly charge of around USD 5.5 billion tied to exporting H20 graphics processing units to China and other destinations.

US stocks dip amid trade tensions

In New York, stock markets experienced a slight downturn on Tuesday as initial gains eroded throughout the trading session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.4% to 40,368.96 points, while the S&P 500 declined by 0.2% to 5396.63 points. Trade tensions, particularly between the US and China, contributed to investor unease, with President Trump maintaining a firm stance on tariffs. Citigroup reported first-quarter earnings, surpassing analysts' expectations due to a 23% rise in equity trading revenues, reaching USD 1.5 billion. CEO Jane Fraser expressed confidence in the US economy despite concerns over trade policies. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.2% to 18,830.23 points.

Americans sceptical of economic outlook

A Federal Reserve survey released on Monday indicates growing consumer concerns about the US economy, despite assurances from the White House. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett stated that there is no risk of a recession in 2025, citing strong trade deal offers. 

US import prices rise less than expected

US import prices increased by 0.9% year-on-year in March, the lowest annual rate since October, as reported by the Labour Department on Tuesday. This was below market expectations of a 1.4% rise and follows a revised 1.6% increase in February. Month-on-month, import prices fell by 0.1% against an expected stagnation, following a revised 0.2% rise in February.

German economic sentiment hit by US tariffs 

German economic expectations plummeted in April due to US tariff policies, with the ZEW economic sentiment index dropping by 65.6 points to minus 14.0 points, as reported by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) on Tuesday. This is the steepest decline since the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Analysts had anticipated a decrease to plus 10.0 points. The erratic US trade policy has significantly increased global uncertainty, particularly impacting export-intensive sectors. In contrast, the assessment of the current economic situation improved slightly, rising by 6.4 points to minus 81.2 points. Expectations in the euro area also fell sharply by 58.3 points to minus 18.5 points. Financial experts do not foresee a sudden spike in inflation, giving the ECB leeway to potentially lower interest rates further.

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Heineken, ASML, Abbott Laboratories, Alcoa, US Banccorp, Travelers and BHP Group.

Economic data in focus: UK Consumer Price Index (08:00), Consumer Prices Austria (09:00), Consumer Prices Italy, euro-area Consumer Price Index (11:00), Retail Sales US (14:30), Bank of Canada interest rate decision (15:45), Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks (19:30).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.