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Powell warns tariffs may challenge Fed - US stocks tumble

Note: Due to the Easter holidays, the next issue will be published on Tuesday, 22 April.

The head of the US central bank, Jerome Powell, warned that US tariffs could prolong inflation. On Wall Street, equity indices were under pressure, driven by a negative sentiment in technology stocks, and despite better-than-expected US retail sales data. In Asian stock markets, however, saw some gains today, led by Tokyo’s Nikkei. Today’s focus will be on the ECB’s monetary policy announcement - markets anticipate a 25 basis points cut. 

  • Date
  • Author Alessandro Fezzi, LGT Research Content & Publications
  • Reading time 5 minutes

Powell
© Shutterstock

Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated on Wednesday that tariffs could create a dilemma for the central bank between managing inflation and fostering economic growth. Speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell noted the uncertainty surrounding the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs, which are expected to elevate inflation and suppress growth. Although he did not specify future interest rate moves, Powell mentioned the Fed is currently positioned to wait for more clarity before adjusting policy. He highlighted the potential for tariffs to cause at least a temporary rise in inflation, complicating the Fed's dual mandate of stable prices and full employment.

Tech stocks take another hit

US stocks fell sharply on Wednesday, driven by declines in technology shares and a warning from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 3% to 18,257.64 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.7% to 39,669.39 points and the S&P 500 lost 2.2% to 5275.70 points. Weak orders from ASML and new US restrictions on AI chip exports to China weighed on sentiment. Nvidia shares dropped nearly 7% after the company warned of a USD 5.5 billion charge in the first quarter, related to new US export restrictions on its H20 AI to China and other countries.

Meanwhile, retail sales in the US increased by 1.4% in March, exceeding the 1.2% forecast and significantly higher than the 0.2% rise in February, according to data released by the Commerce Department. Excluding automotive sales, retail sales grew by 0.5%, surpassing expectations of a 0.3% increase. This robust consumer spending occurs despite declining sentiment and economic uncertainties, including potential tariffs.

Asian markets rise despite Wall Street drop

Equity markets in the Asian-Pacific region mostly advanced on Thursday despite significant declines on Wall Street. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1%, while South Korea's Kospi increased 0.7% after the central bank held interest rates at 2.75%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index climbed 1.7%, although India's Nifty 50 fell by 0.5%.

China appoints new trade negotiator

China appointed Li Chenggang as vice minister of commerce and top trade negotiator on Wednesday, replacing Wang Shouwen. This change comes amid escalating trade tensions with the US, with both nations increasing tariffs in recent weeks. Li, who has extensive experience in trade issues, is expected to manage and potentially deescalate these tensions. US President Trump has indicated a willingness to negotiate but insists that China must make the first move.

Global trade outlook worsens amid tariff uncertainty

The World Trade Organization (WTO) warned that global trade is expected to decline by 0.2% in 2025 due to increased tariffs and trade policy uncertainty under President Trump's administration. This follows a strong year in 2024 when merchandise trade grew by 2.9%. The decline is anticipated to be particularly severe in North America, with exports forecasted to drop by nearly 13% this year. The WTO highlighted further risks, such as the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, which could lead to an even sharper decline of 1.5% in global trade.

EU prepares for new US tariffs

The European Union is anticipating additional tariffs from the United States, despite recent discussions between officials. On Monday, President Trump reiterated dissatisfaction with the EU's trade practices, prompting new investigations into pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports, which may result in further levies. EU officials met with US representatives, but progress was minimal. Today, Italy's Prime Minister Georgia Meloni is set to meet Trump.

Bank of Canada holds interest rate steady

The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.75%, marking the first pause after seven consecutive cuts since June. Governor Tiff Macklem highlighted the impact of trade policies on financial markets and global growth prospects. The central bank also presented two economic forecasts, one predicting limited damage with inflation easing to 1.5%, and the other foreseeing a prolonged trade war leading to a recession and inflation rising above 3% in 2026.

UK inflation slows to 2.6% in March

UK inflation decelerated more than anticipated in March, with the annual consumer price index (CPI) rising 2.6%, down from 2.8% in February. The monthly CPI increase was 0.3%, also below February's 0.4%. Core CPI, excluding energy and food, rose 0.5% monthly and 3.4% annually, slightly lower than the previous month's 3.5%. This cooling inflation increases the likelihood of a 25-basis point interest rate cut by the Bank of England at its May 8 meeting.

Corporate news in focus: Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from ABB, Blackstone, Charles Schwab, Hermes, Lonza, Marsh McLennan, Netflix, Taiwan Semiconductor, and UnitedHealth.

Economic data in focus: German Producer Price Index (08:00), Swiss trade balance (08:00), European Central Bank interest rate decision (14:15) and press conference (14:45), Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (14:30), US building permits (14:30).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.