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Corporate earnings season kicks off and markets await US inflation data

Major American financial institutions such as JPMorgan, Citigroup or Goldman Sachs will kick off the quarterly earnings season today. US stocks rose initially yesterday following a lower-than-expected increase in US producer prices, suggesting easing inflation pressures. Besides the corporate earnings reports, investors are now anticipating today’s US consumer price report to further assess the Federal Reserve's progress towards its inflation target and the Fed’s Beige Book.

Date
Author
Alessandro Fezzi, LGT Research Content & Publications
Reading time
5 minutes

Corporate earnings season
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US stock markets showed mixed results on Tuesday ahead of crucial inflation data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.5% to 42,518.28 points, while the Nasdaq 100 fell by about 0.1% to 20,757.41 points. The S&P 500 gained 0.1% to 5842.91 points. Meanwhile, bond yields have been rising globally, with the US ten-year Treasury yield reaching a 14-month high of nearly 4.8% at the beginning of this week - currently at 4.78. The backdrop is that investors are adjusting their expectations for fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and responding to increasing term premiums linked to larger government deficits. In the UK, 30-year gilt yields are at their highest since 1998, while Japan's ten-year bond yield hit a 13-year high on Tuesday. Overall, we can note that bond markets reflect concerns over government finances and higher borrowing costs.

Key US inflation data in focus

The US producer price index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in December, below the 0.4% rise in November and the consensus estimate of 0.4%, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report on Tuesday. Excluding food and energy, core PPI remained flat, against expectations for a 0.3% rise. Annually, headline PPI rose by 3.3%, significantly higher than the 1.1% increase in 2023. This data, along with the upcoming consumer price index (CPI) report, will likely influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later this month. US CPI (14.30 CET) is expected to show a 0.3% monthly rise and a 2.9% annual increase.

Asian stock markets trade mostly in the positive 

Equity markets in the Asia-Pacific region mostly showed gains on Tuesday following mixed sentiment on Wall Street, as investors rotated out of tech stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index increased by 1.9%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 saw its largest one-day gain since November, climbing 2.6%. In contrast, Japan’s Nikkei 225 dipped 1.8% and the Topix fell 1.2%. Both indexes extended their four-day losing streak. Japan’s 40-year government bond yield rose to an intraday high of 2.77, its highest on record since 2007. South Korea’s Kospi closed up 0.3%, while the small-cap Kosdaq added 1.4%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.5% higher, breaking a three-day losing streak. Investors are also keeping an eye on India’s rupee, which weakened to a record low against the US dollar after December's inflation data supported potential interest rate cuts.

European markets secure moderate gains

The EuroStoxx index increased by 0.5% on Tuesday, while London's market saw slight losses. Germany's DAX recovered most of its recent losses, closing 0.7% higher at 20,271.33 points, nearing its record high from last month. The Swiss Market Index (SMI) ended nearly flat at 11,702.57 points after reaching a daily high of 11,790 points. The euro stabilised at USD 1.0288, after hitting its lowest level since November 2022 on Monday.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Bank of New York Mellon, BlackRock, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo.

Economic data in focus: UK Consumer Prices (07:00), France (08:45) and Spain (09:00), Industrial Production Eurozone (11:00), US Consumer Price Index (13:30) and New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Indicator (13:30) und Fed Beige Book (20:00). 

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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