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Powell drags down market sentiment

US stock markets declined on Thursday following remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who indicated no urgency to lower interest rates. Powell attributed October's weak jobs report to temporary factors and maintained a cautious stance on rate cuts. Major US stock indices fell on Thursday while US Treasury yields increased across the curve. European stocks posted solid gains. Asian markets were trading mostly higher on Friday, bolstered by strong Chinese retail data, but other macroeconomic data out of the region kept sentiment in check. 

Date
Author
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Reading time
5 minutes

Powell
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China's industrial output grew 5.3% year-on-year in October, down from 5.4% in September and below market expectations. The property sector remains weak, with investment falling 10.3% in the first ten months of 2024. Markets are concerned that Donald Trump's election victory in the US could lead to higher tariffs on Chinese goods, potentially necessitating further economic stimulus. Meanwhile, more data released on Friday showed retail sales increased by 4.8%, up from 3.2% in September. The increase, which beat market expectations, were driven by holiday shopping and Singles' Day promotions, showing a sign of stabilisation for the Chinese economy. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was essentially flat on Friday, falling 0.1%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 dropped 1.3%.

Japan's GDP growth slows in third quarter

Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by an annualised 0.9% in the third quarter, exceeding market forecasts of 0.7%, but was slower than the previous three months’ 2.2% growth, according to data released on Friday. Private consumption rose by 0.9%, surpassing expectations and offsetting a 0.2% decline in capital expenditure. The consumption boost may be temporary, driven by factors such as recovery in auto production and tax cuts. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 0.4% higher on Friday amid mostly higher markets in the wider Asia-Pacific region. Korea’s Kospi edged up 0.1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.7%.

US producer prices rise in October

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in October, following a 0.1% rise in September, according to data released on Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Annually, the PPI rose 2.4%. The rise was primarily driven by a 0.3% increase in final demand services. Excluding foods, energy, and trade services, the PPI increased by 0.3% in October, contributing to a 3.5% annual rise. PPI is a critical indicator as it measures inflation at the wholesale level, which can eventually pass through to consumer prices, a key component of monetary policy decisions. Also released Thursday were US initial jobless claims, which decreased by 4000 to 217,000 for the week ending 9 November, indicating a resilient labour market despite October's slowdown in job growth.

US stocks, Treasuries under pressure

The stronger-than-expected producer price increases in October and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicating no rush to cut interest rates put US stocks under pressure on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.5% to 43,750.86 points and the S&P 500 dropped by 0.6% to 5949.17 points. The Nasdaq 100 also declined by 0.7% to 20,896.67 points. Defence stocks like General Dynamics and Lockheed Martin were under pressure amid investor concerns over future US defence policy. Powell’s comments suggesting a slower path of rate cuts also caused US Treasury yields to shoot up. The two-year yield was trading around 4.4% and the ten-year yield near 4.5%.

Euro-area GDP and employment rise in third quarter

Eurostat's flash estimate released on Thursday showed euro-area GDP grew by 0.4% in the third quarter of 2024, following a 0.2% increase in the second quarter. Employment in the euro area also rose by 0.2% from the previous quarter, up from a 0.1% increase in the second quarter. Year-on-year, GDP in the euro area increased by 0.9%, while employment expanded by 1%. In the broader EU, GDP and employment grew by 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively, compared to the previous quarter.

Markets received the data with optimism, causing European stock indices to surge on Thursday. The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed 2% to 4834.05 points, while Germany’s DAX gained 1.4% and closed at 19,263.70 points. France’s CAC 40 rose 1.3% to 7311.80 points. The Swiss Market Index advanced 0.7%.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Alibaba.

Economic data in focus: French Consumer Price Index (07:45), UK gross domestic product (07:00), Italian Consumer Price Index (09:00). In the US: retail sales (13:30), Empire State Manufacturing Index (13:30), and manufacturing production (14:15).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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