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This week’s focus - the Fed is set to cut rates again

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to reduce interest rates by 0.25% at its meeting on Wednesday, marking the third consecutive cut since September, bringing the Fed funds rate down to a range of 4.25-4.50%. Investors will also take a close look at PMIs from US, eurozone and UK today and the Ifo business climate survey on Tuesday. Contrary to the Fed, ECB or SNB, the Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates steady at its meeting on Thursday amid stronger than expected inflation. Finally, China’s central bank will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday. Meanwhile, on Wall Street, the Dow experienced its longest losing streak since 2020 at the end of last week.

Date
Author
Alessandro Fezzi, LGT Research Content & Publications
Reading time
5 minutes

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the seventh consecutive day on Friday, marking its longest decline since 2020. The index dropped 0.2% to close at 43,828.06 points. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% to 19,926.72 points, driven by semiconductor company Broadcom, which surpassed the one-trillion-dollar mark in terms of market capitalisation for the first time, setting a positive tone in the technology sector. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 remained nearly unchanged at 6051.09 points. Over the week, the Dow decreased by 1.8%, and the S&P 500 fell by 0.6%, ending its three-week winning streak, whereas the Nasdaq rose by 0.3%.

Asian markets decline amid central bank decisions 

Asia-Pacific markets fell on Monday, reversing earlier gains as investors focused on upcoming central bank decisions, including the Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China. The Hang Seng index led regional losses, dropping 0.9%, while the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 indices declined 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively. Traders are also digesting China’s latest economic data, which showed a 3% rise in November retail sales, falling short of expectations. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates on Thursday, with the People’s Bank of China set to announce loan prime rates on Friday. In Seoul, the Kospi shed 0.4% at the start of the week.

China signals readiness to mend US ties

On Thursday, Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed Beijing's willingness to collaborate with US President-elect Donald Trump to resolve trade disputes and avoid a potential trade war. Xi emphasised the importance of dialogue and cooperation over confrontation in a letter to the US-China Business Council. Analysts suggest these public overtures reflect Beijing's anxiety and desire to project a cooperative image amid Trump's proposed tariffs on Chinese goods. Despite the tensions, experts predict that both nations will likely seek negotiated solutions rather than abrupt tariff implementations.

France appoints new prime minister

French President Emmanuel Macron appointed Francois Bayrou as the new prime minister on Friday, following a week of political deadlock after Michel Barnier's government was toppled. Bayrou, a centrist and long-time ally of Macron, will face significant challenges, including pressures from both left and right factions regarding the 2025 budget. Despite the political turmoil, analysts expect France's major political blocs to agree on a provisional budget to avoid a government shutdown. The yield on France’s 10-year government bond rose slightly to 3.01% following the announcement.

European stocks decline amid weak economic data

European markets fell on Friday as investors responded to disappointing economic data from the UK and Germany. The pan-European Stoxx 600 dropped 0.47% after UK GDP contracted by 0.1% in October, contrary to expectations of a 0.1% rise, and Germany reported weak export figures. Additionally, France's CAC 40 index reversed gains following the appointment of Francois Bayrou as the new prime minister. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, signalling potential further reductions in 2025.

German exports decline in October

German exports fell by 2.8% in October 2024 compared to September, with a total value of EUR 124.6 billion, according to data released by Destatis on Friday. Imports slightly decreased by 0.1% to EUR 111.2 billion. Year-on-year, exports also dropped by 2.8%, while imports increased by 1.7%. The foreign trade surplus narrowed to EUR 13.4 billion from EUR 16.9 billion in September.

UK GDP shrinks by 0.1% in October

The UK economy contracted by 0.1% in October, marking its second consecutive monthly decline, according to the Office for National Statistics on Friday. This downturn, attributed to a drop in production output, contrasts with economists' expectations of a 0.1% increase. The British pound fell 0.3% against the US dollar following the news. Despite the weak data, the Bank of England is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.75% in its upcoming meeting.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: Swiss Producer and Import Price Index (08:30), German Purchasing Managers' Index (09:30), euro-area Purchasing Managers' Index (10:00), UK Purchasing Managers' Index (10:30), Italian Consumer Price Index (11:00), Empire State Manufacturing Index (14:30), US Purchasing Managers' Index (15:45), Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaks (21:45).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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