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France downgraded by Moody’s - Fed decision takes the spotlight

European markets opened lower at the start of this week, with France's CAC 40 index dropping 0.7% due to Moody's unexpected downgrade of France's credit rating to Aa3. However, the focus this week is the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision on Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate again by a quarter of a percentage point. Sentiment on Wall Street was split as indices on the Nasdaq hit record highs, while the Dow declined.

Date
Author
Alessandro Fezzi, LGT Research Content & Publications
Reading time
5 minutes

France
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The Nasdaq Composite continued its record rally on Monday, gaining 1.5% to close at 22,096.66 points, surpassing the 22,000 mark for the first time. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the eighth consecutive day, down 0.3% to 43,717.48 points. The S&P 500 also saw a modest increase of 0.4%, closing at 6074.08 points. As investors anticipate a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, technology stocks, particularly those involved in artificial intelligence, continue to benefit from the low-interest-rate environment. In addition to the Fed’s decision, the data calendar this week is packed too, ahead of the holidays, including November retail sales, housing starts and permits, annualised GDP figures for the third quarter, and final December readings from the University of Michigan consumer survey.

Equity markets in Asia with no clear direction ahead of rate decisions 

Asian markets displayed mixed performance on Tuesday as investors anticipated key interest rate decisions from major central banks this week. Weak economic data from China, including a slowdown in retail sales growth and persistent challenges in the real estate sector, dampened sentiment. Japan's Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indices remained nearly flat, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong shed 0.6% and the Kospi in Seoul lost 1.3% on Tuesday. 

Political turmoil casts a shadow over Europe's stock market performance

European stock markets mostly fell on Monday due to political woes in France and Germany, as Moody's unexpectedly downgraded France's sovereign credit rating to Aa3. The EuroStoxx 50 dropped by 0.4% to 4947.03 points, while the FTSE 100 declined by 0.5% and the Swiss SMI edged up by 0.1%. Weak auto stocks, led by Stellantis, and profit-taking weighed on the EuroStoxx, whereas the healthcare sector outperformed, driven by Novo Nordisk’s gains. 

German chancellor Scholz loses confidence vote

The Bundestag withdrew its confidence from Chancellor Olaf Scholz, paving the way for new elections on 23 February. Scholz received 207 votes in favour, 394 against, and 116 abstentions. He will now ask President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to dissolve the Bundestag. Scholz criticised the FDP for undermining his government, while opposition leaders blamed him for economic failures.

Business sentiment in the eurozone improves in December

Euro-area business climate improved in December, with the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index rising by 1.2 points to 49.5 points, according to data released on Monday. Despite expectations of a slowdown, the service sector showed unexpected growth, while the manufacturing sector remained in recession. The overall index, however, still signals a decline in economic activity as it remains below the 50-point expansion threshold.

Swiss growth forecasts revised downwards

Economic experts have lowered their growth forecasts for Switzerland, with real GDP expected to grow by 1.0% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025, according to the KOF Consensus Forecast released on Monday. Inflation expectations have also been reduced to 1.1% for 2024 and 0.6% for 2025. The outlook for equipment investments and exports has become more pessimistic, although construction investment forecasts have slightly improved. The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 2.7% by 2025.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: UK unemployment rate (07:00), ifo Business Climate Index (09:00), ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (10:00), euro-area trade balance (10:00), US retail sales (13:30), Canadian Consumer Price Index (13:30).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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