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US Federal Reserve on the verge of monetary policy turnaround

Capital markets are eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on Wednesday. The first interest rate cut is expected, although the extent - 25 or 50 basis points - remains difficult to estimate given the latest inflation data from the US. Gold continued its rise and the prospect of falling interest rates caused the precious metal to reach new record levels. In Asia, stock markets performed inconsistently against the backdrop of negative economic data from China. 

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Author
Alessandro Fezzi, LGT Research Content & Publications
Reading time
5 minutes

Federal Reserve Compass
© Shutterstock

Equity markets in the Asia-Pacific region opened unevenly on Monday, driven by the Hong Kong stock exchange. The focus was on weaker-than-expected economic data from China. In addition, some markets were closed for holidays. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell by around 0.8% at the opening of trading after China published a range of economic data over the weekend. Industrial output, retail sales and investments all fell short of expectations in August. In addition, the urban unemployment rate rose to a six-month high, while year-on-year house prices fell at the fastest pace in nine years. Markets in mainland China and South Korea were closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival. Markets in Japan were closed for Respect for the Aged Day. Furthermore, typhoon Bebinca has led to the cancellation of hundreds of flights in China, and Shanghai is expected to be hit by the strongest storm since 1949. The Australian S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.44% at the opening.

US stock markets, and the Nasdaq in particular, post solid weekly gains

In New York, the stock indices ended last week on Friday with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial rose by 0.7% to 41,393.78 points and the S&P 500 closed at 5626.02 points, 0.5% higher than on the previous day. Over the course of the week, the standard values thus achieved a plus of 2.6%. On the technology exchange Nasdaq, the indices rose by around half a percent on Friday and achieved a robust plus of almost 6% over the course of the week. The latest economic data confirmed the trend of weakening inflation, which should enable the US Federal Reserve to reverse interest rates. Since the Fed waited a long time before making the first interest rate cut, many market participants are expecting a "jumbo step" of 50 basis points. However, in view of core inflation remaining robust, the Fed's first interest rate move could be moderate, i.e. a cut in the key rate of "only" 25 basis points.

On the bond market, the yield on ten-year US Treasuries fell to 3.66%. The US dollar was able to regain some ground against the euro for a short time, but is currently trading at 1.11 again. The price of gold continues to rise and is currently trading at a record USD 2588.80 per troy ounce. The background to this is the prospect of further interest rate cuts.

More optimistic US consumers 

Consumer confidence in the US brightened for the second month in a row in September, according to the University of Michigan's monthly survey. The sentiment barometer improved from 67.9 to 69.0 points, more than economists had expected (consensus 68.5). Consumer inflation expectations fell significantly, reaching 2.7% over a one-year horizon, the lowest level since the end of 2020.

Russia's central bank unexpectedly raises key interest rate

The Russian central bank expects the risk of inflation to increase and was therefore forced to tighten its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 19%. With underlying price pressures remaining high and no signs of weakening, the central bank is considering further interest rate hikes. In August, the inflation rate was 9%.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Meyer Burger Technology.

Economic data in focus: Producer and Import Prices Switzerland, Consumer Prices Italy, Trade Balance Eurozone and from the USA the New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index.

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd, Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd

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