As visitor numbers rise, the economic benefits of tourism could well be outweighed by the industry's negative environmental impacts. The challenge for policymakers and industry leaders is to present sustainable alternatives that attract the next generation of tourists while preserving the planet's natural resources.
In 2018, tourism officials were forced to close Thailand's Maya Bay after the surge in visitors prompted by the Leonardo DiCaprio movie "The Beach" caused severe damage to its clear water, marine life, coral reefs and iconic limestone rocks. Given that this was among Thailand's most popular tourist destinations, contributing to local income generation, it was an extreme measure. However, this is just one example of the need to rethink tourism in order to preserve its benefits while minimising its negative consequences for the ecosystem.
This will not be easy. Pent up travel demand is making itself felt, with an estimated 1.1 billion tourists traveling in the first nine months of 2024, according to UN Tourism's World Tourism Barometer. In many ways, the industry's post-pandemic recovery is good news. Tourism generates jobs, creates local infrastructure, helps preserve heritage sites, and fosters cultural exchange. Unfortunately the industry is also the cause of serious negative environmental impacts.
When it comes to climate change, aviation is often cited as a culprit. Currently responsible for around 3 % of global carbon emissions, the Energy Transitions Commission estimates that without measures to mitigate its carbon footprint, aviation's share of total emissions could rise to 22 % by 2050.
The cruise industry has an even heavier carbon footprint per passenger on its "floating hotels". Research conducted by the International Council on Clean Transportation has revealed that a cruise ship passenger generates roughly twice the amount of carbon dioxide as someone who flies and rents a hotel for the same amount of time.
In some parts of the world, tourism's impact is growing more rapidly than in others. In Asia, for example, the industry is expanding particularly fast. This is having a global impact since the increasingly affluent middle classes of China and India can now afford to travel overseas.
Just as worrying is the damage mass tourism can do to nature. From the land cleared for hotels and resorts, to the damage scuba diving causes to coral reefs, to the vast amounts of water consumed by golf courses, it is hard to find a form of tourism with zero impact on nature.
We know that the environment is negatively affected by tourism. But environmental degradation in turn negatively affects the industry itself in the form of rising temperatures and extreme weather events like tropical cyclones, is already causing problems for the industry.
Overall, however, the tourism industry is extremely vulnerable to environmental challenges. For example, research by Canada's University of Waterloo found that because changing weather affects snowfall, the resulting shorter ski seasons in the USA could result in annual economic losses totalling more than 1 billion USD.
For the island nations of the Caribbean, where tourism can account for up to 90 % of GDP according to the International Monetary Fund, the risk of national disasters like hurricanes is extremely high. IMF research has found that on average, a 10 % rise in so-called climate change vulnerability is associated with a fall of 10 percentage points in tourism revenues as a share of GDP.
Some destinations will benefit from the changes. Warmer weather is making destinations like Alaska, Norway, Sweden, and Scotland more attractive, while melting sea ice will open up new routes for cruise operators.
Some countries are harnessing adaptation investments to attract travellers. This is the case in the Netherlands, where coastal protection measures like sand dunes, which are nature-based as opposed to man-made (in the form of sheet pile walls), provide new habitats for plants and animals and are becoming tourist attractions.
A study of one example of this, the Hondsbossche Dunes, by the International Institute for Sustainable Development, estimated that the sand dunes will boost tourism revenue in the area by almost 203 million EUR over 50 years, compared to 103 million EUR for man-made alternatives.
While the tourism industry has little choice but to adapt to the current effects of climate change and biodiversity loss, it also needs to prevent future damage and contribute to global sustainability goals. Given the industry's reliance on weather and natural beauty, ensuring that travel is a more sustainable activity is in the industry's own interests.
Some efforts to reduce tourism's environmental footprint are being made at a global level. For example, the Glasgow Declaration on Climate Action in Tourism, which was launched in 2021 at COP26 to accelerate climate action in tourism, has almost 900 signatories from 90 countries that have pledged to create and report on their climate action plans.
In other cases, policymakers can tap into the desire by many people to lower their own environmental footprint. For example, the concept of "slow tourism" is becoming more appealing, with many of today's travellers seeking deeper engagement with the destinations they visit.
In addition to longer stays to explore the natural environment and culture, which cut the carbon emissions associated with frequent flights, slow tourism promotes more sustainable forms of transport, such as trains and bicycles. Remote working helps also, enabling people to continue their day jobs while on extended visits. Many countries have responded by offering what are known as "digital nomad" visas.
As Costa Rica has demonstrated, countries that are able to preserve their rich natural resources can also harness these resources to build an ecotourism industry.
In turn, this kind of tourism can help to advance sustainability goals. For example, by offering visitors wellness, community engagement, and education on the role of healthy oceans in combating climate change, regenerative marine and coastal tourism can build climate resilience of a region and support local economies.
Meanwhile, agritourism provides farmers with an additional source of income while offering visitors fitness and adventure experiences, opportunities to eat and buy local produce, and activities that explore sustainable agricultural practices. Taiwan, for example, has developed the concept of leisure farms, with certified agritourism destinations where visitors can experience aquaculture, or the cultivation of products like sugar, pineapples, and tea.
The tourism industry is riding the crest of a demand wave. The worry is that as demand rises, the industry will contribute to pollution and destroy the assets that attract so many tourists in search of natural beauty. To combat this, Thailand's Maya Bay is now open again but restricts the number of visitors and their length of stay. Similarly, access to other potentially fragile destinations will have to be limited.
However, as leading climate scientist Reto Knutti, told LGT Insights, asking people to make sacrifices is not a long-term solution to meeting sustainability goals. Instead, more attractive and sustainable options must be presented. In tourism, as we have seen, this includes everything from sand dunes in the Netherlands, to ecotourism in Costa Rica, to leisure farms in Taiwan.
"There are more and more examples of how something that seemed like a sacrifice yesterday might not be a sacrifice in the future," says Knutti, who is a professor at the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science at ETH Zurich. "In fact, in certain areas, the alternatives are already more attractive."
