LGT Private Banking House View

August 2024 - in a nutshell

With the overall picture remaining constructive, we maintain our "Overweight" in equities and "Underweight" in fixed income. Fundamentally, stronger electricity demand growth, low valuations and the prospect of an interest rate turnaround offer attractive entry points in the utilities sector, which we upgrade to "Overweight". In fixed income, we are reducing the duration of our US dollar bonds.

Date
Auteur
Gérald Moser, CIO & Head Investment Services Europe
Temps de lecture
7 minutes

House View August 2024
© Shutterstock

Macroeconomic environment

The global economy avoided a significant recession but sustained economic damage. In the first half of 2024, the growth outlook for both the US and the euro area improved, although growth remains tepid. The risk of recessionary disruptions has decreased, leading to a consolidation phase with below-average growth and gradual disinflation.

Investment strategy

As momentum and risk appetite remain constructive, the Investment Committee Europe broadly confirmed the current risk-on investment strategy. We maintain our equity “Overweight” as the momentum remains solid and keep our “Underweight” in fixed income due to narrow credit spreads. Furthermore, we decided to reduce the duration of our USD bond portfolios and maintain the tactical “Overweight” in gold as a cushion against geopolitical risks.

Equity strategy

Lower inflation figures in the US, combined with a significant shift in the probability of the outcome of the US election due to recent developments, led to an unprecedented rotation in the US equity market. Whereas previously only 16% of stocks had been able to beat the S&P 500 – the worst market breadth in 20 years – suddenly 76% of index stocks were able to beat the S&P 500 – the best market breadth in 20 years. In principle an improvement in market breadth fits in with our expectation of a soft economic landing in the US combined with a broad-based earnings recovery. We are maintaining an “Overweight” in US equities and see further catch-up potential for the equal-weighted S&P 500. Furthermore, we are upgrading the utilities sector to “Overweight”. The combination of stronger demand for electricity, fueled among other things by demand for data centres for artificial intelligence, low valuations and prospects of an interest rate turnaround in the US, which would be above average favourable for this highly interest rate-sensitive sector, offer an attractive risk/reward ratio.

Fixed-income strategy

In the US dollar segment, we are moving from a neutral duration position to the short end of the yield curve. The yield curve inversion in the two to ten year segment means the short end offers a higher carry advantage. Anticipating Fed interest rate cuts, we expect short-term rates to fall in the next one to two quarters, which could positively impact short-term bonds. Additionally, a soft landing in the US, a potentially unsustainably financed government budget, and increased issuance of long-dated Treasuries could lead to further upward pressure on long-term rates.

Currency Strategy

The Japanese yen is currently undervalued, making it an attractive investment, supported by fundamentals like the current account surplus. The carry trade dynamic could also shift in favour of the yen if the Fed cuts rates or the Bank of Japan (BoJ) further hikes interest rates soon. While outright forward costs impact yen positions, long yen trades should still realise positively given our USD/JPY target of 150 within three months. Key metrics to watch include the monetary policies of the Fed and BoJ, which primarily influence the USD/JPY exchange rate. These developments could drive the yen towards our target.

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