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Fed maintains rates amid tariff uncertainties

The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its policy rate unchanged on Wednesday, citing uncertainty from US President Donald Trump's import tariffs, which have led to higher inflation and slower growth. US stock markets closed higher following the Fed's cautious stance. European stocks also closed mostly higher on Wednesday. In Asia, China maintained its key lending rates amid ongoing trade tensions, leading to mixed market reactions across the region on Thursday. In other assets, gold continued to hit fresh all-time highs and was trading above USD 3050. On Thursday, all eyes will shift towards the Swiss National Bank and Bank of England, which are next in line with monetary policy announcements later in the day.

  • Date
  • Auteur Shane Strowmatt, LGT
  • Temps de lecture 5 minutes

Fed interest rate pause
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The Fed kept its policy rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range on Wednesday, citing high uncertainty due to Trump's import tariffs. The Fed projects economic growth to slow to 1.7% - down from its previous projection of 2.1% - with inflation rising to 2.7%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the challenges posed by the tariffs, which have led to higher inflation and slower growth, and emphasised the central bank's cautious approach amid the current economic turmoil. Given the difficult economic circumstances, Fed policymakers indicated on Wednesday that they expect to implement two quarter-point interest rate cuts this year, maintaining their median forecast from three months ago. The interest rate projection was sufficient to help US stock markets to close higher on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.9% to 41,964.63 points, while the S&P 500 increased by 1.1% to 5675.29 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, sensitive to interest rate changes, gained 1.3% to 19,736.66 points.

China holds rates amid trade tensions

China’s central bank maintained its key lending rates on Thursday, with the 1-year loan prime rate at 3.1% and the 5-year rate at 3.6%, following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates steady. The People's Bank of China aims to balance economic growth and currency stability amidst ongoing trade frictions. Retail sales and industrial output showed improvement in early 2025, but weak inflation data suggests further policy support may be needed. Chinese stocks were under pressure after the policy announcement, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index falling 1.5%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 dropping 0.8%. Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region, stocks were mostly higher. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 0.2% higher, and Korea’s Kospi rose 0.3%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up 1.2%, despite net employment falling by 52,800 jobs in February.

Euro-area inflation falls to 2.3%

The euro-area annual inflation rate decreased to 2.3% in February 2025 from 2.5% in January, according to Eurostat data released on Wednesday. A year earlier, the rate was 2.6%. The inflation rate for February was revised down from an initial estimate of 2.4%, providing the European Central Bank with an argument to continue cutting interest rates at its policy meeting next month. In the EU, annual inflation dropped to 2.7% in February from 2.8% in January, mirroring the rate from the previous year. European stock indices showed mixed results on Wednesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 edged up 0.4%, while France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.7%. Conversely, Germany’s DAX slipped 0.4%, falling after three sessions of strong gains, and the Swiss Market Index was virtually unchanged, dipping 0.02%.

Turkish lira and stocks plunge after mayor's arrest

The Turkish lira hit a record low versus the US dollar and the BIST 100 stock index plummeted on Wednesday following the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a prominent rival to President Erdogan. Imamoglu, seen as a potential presidential candidate for the opposition, was detained on charges including terrorism and organised crime, which his party vehemently denies, labelling the move a coup attempt.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Accenture, Micron Technology, Nike, Nordea Bank, RWE, and Swissquote. Annual general meetings at Givaudan, Keysight Technologies, and Walt Disney.

Economic data in focus: UK unemployment rate (08:00), European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks (09:00), Swiss National Bank interest rate decision (09:30), Bank of England interest rate decision (12:00), US weekly initial jobless claims (13:30), Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (13:30).

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Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.