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Middle East tensions, PMIs in focus

Oil prices surged on Thursday as the escalating conflict in the Middle East raised fears of supply disruptions, despite data showing a well-supplied market. US equities saw modest gains on Wednesday, while Asian markets traded mixed, with Japanese stocks rallying on a weaker yen. Investors are also focused on upcoming European services Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs), which could cement expectations of a cut this month by the European Central Bank (ECB).

Date
Auteur
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Temps de lecture
5 minutes

Market numbers
© Shutterstock

European services PMIs released on Thursday are expected to show reduced activity, reinforcing predictions of rate cuts by the ECB. Investors anticipate the ECB will lower rates by 25 basis points in both October and December, following remarks from ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel suggesting inflation is stabilising. In the US, jobless claims and the ISM services survey are due later Thursday.

Oil prices rise on Middle East tensions

Brent crude futures increased by 1.3%, trading at nearly USD 75 per barrel on Thursday, driven by fears of supply disruptions due to escalating conflict in the Middle East. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 1.5% to more than USD 71 per barrel. The US crude inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels last week, compared to a 1.3 million-barrel draw expected, indicating a well-supplied market. Despite the geopolitical risks, market participants suggest OPEC+ has sufficient spare capacity to mitigate potential supply shocks from Iran. Israel conducted an air strike on central Beirut early Thursday, killing six people and wounding seven, following its deadliest day of clashes with Hezbollah in a year. Despite the heightened tensions, gold prices dipped slightly, trading around USD 2650 per ounce.

Euro-area unemployment stable at 6.4%

The euro-area unemployment rate remained stable at 6.4% in August 2024, unchanged from July 2024 and down from 6.6% in August 2023, according to Eurostat. The EU unemployment rate fell to 5.9% in August 2024 from 6% in July 2024. The number of unemployed persons in the euro area decreased by 94,000 from July 2024 and by 233,000 from August 2023, totalling more than 10.9 million. The employment report comes one day after euro-area inflation fell to 1.8% in September, below the ECB’s 2% target, adding support for calls for another rate cut by the ECB later this month.

European stock indices exhibited mixed performance on Wednesday. The STOXX Europe 600 edged up 0.1%, while Germany’s DAX fell 0.3%. France’s CAC 40 managed a slight gain of 0.1%, and the Swiss Market Index increased by 0.2%. Market participants remained cautious amid geopolitical tensions and economic data releases.

US private sector employment rises in September

US private sector employment increased by 143,000 jobs in September, according to the ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday. This follows a revised gain of 103,000 jobs in August and marks a rebound from a five-month slowdown. Annual pay for job-stayers grew by 4.7%, slightly down from 4.8% in August, while job-changers saw their pay growth decline from 7.3% to 6.6%. The report noted that the information sector was the only one to lose jobs, while manufacturing added jobs for the first time since April.

US equities saw modest gains on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42,196.52 points, rising 0.1%, while the S&P 500 closed essentially flat to finish at 5709.54 points. The Nasdaq-100 also posted a slight increase, adding 0.2% to close at 19,802.59 points. In individual stocks, Nike's shares fell by 6.8% after reporting a significant third-quarter revenue decline and cancelling its annual targets, while Tesla's stock dropped 3.5% as its quarterly deliveries missed analysts' expectations. US Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 2-year yield at 3.7% and the 10-year yield at 3.8%.

Japanese stocks rally, yen weakens

Japanese stocks surged 2.2% on Thursday, driven by a weaker yen, as the likelihood of a Bank of Japan rate hike this year diminished. The yen dropped to 147 against the dollar, its lowest in a month, following statements from Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Bank of Japan officials indicating no imminent rate increases.

Stocks elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region were mixed on Thursday. Korea’s Kospi fell 1.2%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was essentially flat. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 1.4% after seeing solid gains earlier in the week. Markets in mainland China remained closed for the Golden Week holiday.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: Swiss Consumer Price Index (08:30), Italian Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (09:45), French Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (09:50), German Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (09:55), euro-area Producer Price Index (11:00), UK Inflation Report Hearing (15:15), US weekly initial jobless claims (14:30), US ISM non-manufacturing index (16:00). 

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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