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Mixed US data puzzles markets

US gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at a strong pace, while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) remained high and labour market data was difficult to interpret. US stocks closed lower ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, while European equities were dragged down on Wednesday by political uncertainty out of France. Meanwhile, Asian markets showed mixed reactions to South Korea's unexpected rate cut on Thursday. 

Date
Auteur
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Temps de lecture
5 minutes

US dollars
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US GDP grew at an annualised rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, propelled by a 3.5% increase in consumer spending, according to data released on Wednesday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This robust performance, despite being slightly revised down from initial estimates, highlights the resilience of the US economy amid high borrowing costs and political uncertainty. Business investment also saw an upward revision, particularly in research and development, contributing to the overall economic expansion.

US PCE inflation remains above Fed 2% target

The US personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation measure, increased by 0.2% in October, resulting in a 12-month inflation rate of 2.3%, as reported on Wednesday. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% monthly and 2.8% annually, both figures aligning with market expectations. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims remained low, although continuing claims increased to their highest level since 2021, indicating potential challenges for the unemployed in finding new jobs.

US stocks slip ahead of holiday weekend

Market participants struggled to interpret the slew of macroeconomic data out of the US. The Dow Jones Industrial Average initially surpassed 45,000 points for the first time on Wednesday before closing 0.31% lower at 44,722.06 points, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.4% to finish at 5998.7 points. The Nasdaq-100, heavily weighted with tech stocks, declined 0.9% to 20,744.49 points. Some Big Tech firms have come under pressure recently amid a string of reports about anti-trust probes by the US authorities. US markets remain closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and trading on Friday is limited.

South Korea cuts interest rates

South Korea's central bank, the Bank of Korea (BOK), reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3% on Thursday, marking the first consecutive rate cuts since 2009. This unexpected move follows a weaker-than-expected GDP growth of 1.5% year-on-year in the third quarter. The BOK also downgraded its GDP growth forecasts to 2.2% for 2024 and 1.9% for 2025, citing intensified economic pressures and slowing export growth. Korea’s Kospi was little changed after the central bank move, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 0.6% higher and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.5%. However, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was down 1.1%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 was trading 0.4% lower.

German consumer sentiment deteriorates

Consumer sentiment in Germany dropped significantly in November, with the GfK Consumer Climate index falling by 4.9 points to -23.3 points, mirroring levels seen in December 2023. The decline is driven by sharp reductions in income expectations and a slight decrease in the willingness to buy. Rising concerns about job security and increasing insolvencies have unsettled consumers. Macroeconomic data coming out of Europe’s largest economy has been weak recently: the ifo Business climate Index released earlier this week slipped, while last week’s Composite PMI fell to a nine-month low and GDP data showed the German economy just marginally grew last quarter. Meanwhile, German preliminary inflation for November, due Thursday, is expected to remain high at 2.6%, following 2.4% in October, amid ongoing economic contraction forecasts.

German economy and French politics cause unease in Europe

European stocks slid on Wednesday amid the string of weak data coming out of Germany. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.6%, while Germany’s DAX declined 0.2%. The Swiss Market Index was marginally down by 0.1%. France’s CAC 40 led regional losses, falling 0.7% on Wednesday, reaching its lowest since early August, due to a threat by French politician Marine Le Pen to initiate a no-confidence vote over budget disagreements. Yields on French bonds also spiked amid the political instability with the French government paying the highest yield on long-term debt since the euro-area debt crisis more than a decade ago.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: euro-area business and consumer survey results (11:00), German Consumer Price Index (14:00).

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Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
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